JB Insights
Gold, silver retreat as volatility overrides dovish signals
By Gnanasekar Thiagarajan
Gold and silver ended lower on the week despite sharp intraday rebounds, with price action reflecting continued volatility and fragile positioning rather than a sustained recovery. In the absence of a definitive macro catalyst, a broad-based decline across equities and cryptocurrencies prompted investors to raise liquidity, briefly dragging gold below the key $5,000 per ounce threshold. Non-yielding assets came under pressure as earlier stronger-than-expected US employment data pushed expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut further into midyear, reducing the appeal of bullion. Sentiment shifted, however, after inflation data showed annual CPI slowing to 2.4% and core inflation easing to 2.5%, reviving dovish expectations. The softer inflation print weighed on Treasury yields and pressured the dollar, allowing gold to recover toward the $4,990 region. Silver experienced similar turbulence, sliding sharply during the liquidation phase before rebounding above $76 per ounce, though it remained on track for another weekly decline.
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan
Introduction:
Gold finished the period under pressure despite sharp rebounds, with price action dominated by cross-asset volatility and shifting rate expectations. After initially recovering more than 2% on softer-than-expected US inflation, bullion briefly pushed back toward the $5,000–$5,020 region as annual CPI slowed to 2.4% and core inflation eased to 2.5%, reinforcing expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Lower yields and a softer dollar provided near-term relief, reviving the structural appeal of non-yielding assets.
However, gains proved fragile as the dollar rebounded and gold slipped back below $5,020, underscoring hesitation around the psychological $5,000 threshold. Earlier strength in US labor data had already delayed expectations for the first rate cut toward midyear, capping upside momentum. Markets now await further guidance from FOMC minutes, GDP data and the core PCE print, while geopolitical developments — including renewed US-Iran nuclear talks and broader Middle East tensions — continue to shape safe-haven flows.
Silver tracked gold’s volatility but continued to underperform structurally, remaining in a corrective phase after January’s extreme surge. The metal rebounded nearly 3% on softer inflation data and firmer rate-cut expectations, briefly moving back above $76 per ounce, but gains faded as liquidity stayed thin amid China holidays and broader risk sentiment remained fragile. Heavy speculative positioning left silver exposed to sharp reversals, and prices are still far below late-January highs above $120 after the collapse toward the mid-$60s. While lower yields and debasement concerns offer underlying support, near-term trade points to consolidation rather than a swift return to the prior rally.
Gold and Silver:
Gold fell below $5,020 per ounce on Monday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, following weaker-than-expected US CPI data. The soft inflation print reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with markets now pricing in slightly more than two reductions. Investors are awaiting the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the US GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data for further clues on the timing of the next rate cut. On the geopolitical front, traders are monitoring nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as US-led negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, both scheduled to resume on Tuesday. Developments in these areas could influence risk sentiment and safe-haven demand. Despite recent volatility, the precious metal remained supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.
Silver March
Silver fell more than 1% toward $76 per ounce on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, although trading volumes were subdued due to market holidays in the US, China and other countries. On Friday, the metal had jumped nearly 3% after soft US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, with a strong probability of a move in June. Investors now turn to the latest Fed minutes and the Fed-preferred core PCE price index report for further guidance on the US monetary outlook.
Meanwhile, mainland China’s markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese traders had driven a speculative surge in precious metals in recent weeks, prompting authorities to curb market risks through various measures. Silver peaked above $120 an ounce in late January before falling to around $64 earlier this month as sentiment reversed.
Gold April
Technical View: $4996. Weekly chart shows a strong underlying uptrend with price holding well above the short-term moving averages and momentum expanding positively. The recent pullback appears corrective, with support seen near $4886/4878; holding above this zone keeps the broader structure intact for a move towards $5460. A decisive break below $4765 will be the first sign of deeper corrective pressure.
Industry leader in precision gold manufacturing, V.K. Jewels is renowned for pioneering “paper casting” technology. They specialize in CZ-studded gold jewellery that marries grand aesthetics with lightweight efficiency. By integrating AI-driven design and a robust B2B network, V.K. Jewels offers retailers a competitive edge through consistent quality and trend-forward innovation. Witness the journey of a brand built on trust and technological excellence.
The Beginning, Evolution, Milestones
V.K. Jewels was founded in 1993 in Rajkot by Vijay Kotak with limited resources but a strong vision — to bring quality craftsmanship, reliability, and trust to the jewellery manufacturing space. Starting with silver casting, the company gradually built trust through consistency, precision, and customer-centricity.
With Hiren Kotak entering the business, key milestones included the transition into CZ-studded gold jewellery, expansion into plain gold casting, adoption of lightweight and paper casting techniques, and building a strong B2B dealer network across India.
Today, V.K. Jewels stands as one of the biggest casting jewellery manufacturers in India, known for paper-casting jewellery, innovation, volume capability, and market responsiveness.
Early Challenges & Growth Strategy
In the early 90s, the jewellery market was highly competitive, fragmented, and dominated by traditional players. Limited capital and evolving market preferences posed challenges.
Visionary decisions such as focusing on manufacturing excellence, investing in modern casting technology, and building long-term dealer relationships helped V.K. Jewels scale rapidly. A strong emphasis on lightweight jewellery and consistent superior quality enabled the brand to differentiate itself and become one of India’s leading manufacturers.
Product Offering
Core Product Lines
V.K. Jewels offers a wide range of CZ-studded jewellery and plain gold casting jewellery, including rings, pendants, earrings, bangles, bracelets, chains, and bridal sets.
The collections cater to multiple segments — from mass-market daily wear to premium bridal and festive jewellery — enabling retailers and wholesalers to serve diverse customer needs efficiently.
Portfolio Expansion Beyond Silver
Starting from silver casting, V.K. Jewels expanded into gold casting and CZ jewellery to meet evolving consumer demands for affordability, design variety, and lighter weight.
The portfolio now supports both wholesale and corporate brands of India with ready-to-sell designs, fast-moving collections, and trend-driven styles suited for modern consumers.
Top-of-the-Line Products
Flagship Products – Strong Visual Appeal
V.K. Jewels’ lightweight CZ-studded necklaces, daily wear rings, and earrings are among its top performers. These products are preferred by high-end wholesalers, retailers, and corporates due to their excellent finishing, competitive pricing, fast inventory turnover, and strong visual appeal.
The use of paper casting ensures reduced gold weight without compromising on design aesthetics.
Bestseller Highlights
The bestselling categories include CZ-studded necklace sets and rings, known for their rich look, lightweight structure, and durability. Customers appreciate their premium finish, long-wear comfort, and excellent value proposition, making them a favourite choice for wedding and festive purchases.
Design Innovation & Quality
Ensuring Innovation & Quality
V.K. Jewels continuously invests in design research, CAD development, and market trend analysis. A dedicated design team works closely with production to ensure every piece meets modern style expectations while maintaining high manufacturing standards.
Rigorous quality checks at every stage ensure precision and durability.
Quality Assurance & Ethical Practices
The company follows strict quality control processes, including material verification, multi-stage inspections, and standardised finishing protocols.
Ethical sourcing and responsible manufacturing practices reinforce brilliance, durability, and trust.
Network of Wholesalers & Retailers
Distribution Network
V.K. Jewels has built a strong nationwide distribution network with wholesalers, retailers, and corporate brands across major jewellery hubs.
Supporting the Network Amid Rising Gold Prices
With rising gold prices, V.K. Jewels supports partners through lightweight designs, paper casting innovations, competitive pricing, faster stock rotation, and consistent supply.
This enables retailers to maintain margins while offering attractive, high-demand products.
Plans for Growth & Expansion
Short-Term & Long-Term Strategies
Short-term plans include expanding the dealer network and introducing new trend-aligned collections.
Long-term strategies focus on scaling exports, entering international markets, expanding product categories, and strengthening global brand visibility.
Scaling Manufacturing Capacity
The company is investing in expanded infrastructure, modern machinery, and skilled manpower to enhance production capacity while maintaining quality and timely delivery.
Continuous process optimisation ensures scalability without compromising craftsmanship.
Technology, AI & Automation Integration
V.K. Jewels integrates advanced CAD/CAM technologies, automation in casting and finishing, and digital quality control systems.
The adoption of AI-driven design analysis, demand forecasting, and production planning tools enhances efficiency, accuracy, and operational optimisation.
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