International News
Gold near fresh all-time highs ahead of US trading session
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is seeing gains tick up trading near $2,952 at the time of writing, fueled by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and softening US yields in a reaction to the recent German federal election outcome. Although the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained 20% of votes, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) is comfortable in the lead with 208 seats against AfD’s 152. US yields dropped off and the CME Federal Reserve (Fed) Futures are now favoring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June, where last week odds were rather for no rate cut in June.
Meanwhile, traders will watch the US Gross Domestic Product (GBP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 later this week. Given the recent slowdown in US activity and economic data (for example, the softer Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading on Friday), another drop in US yields could be triggered, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve lowering its monetary policy rate to boost the economy and demand. The US dollar weakened after several reports and economic data points last week revealed that US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, with expectations for inflation surging and markets pricing in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
International News
Gold, Silver Slide as Inflation and Fed Outlook Dominate Geopolitical Risks AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Safe Heaven Dynamics – Gold and silver remain under pressure, slipping to $4800 and $75 respectively, as stronger US producer inflation and a firm dollar outweigh safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions. Elevated real yields continue to cap upside, keeping sentiment weak despite geopolitical risks.
- Geopolitical Developments – Escalation intensified after Iran struck a Qatari site hosting the world’s largest LNG facility, following attacks on its South Pars gas field. This marks a significant widening of the conflict, raising energy security concerns and inflation risks, while increasing uncertainty across global markets.
- Monetary Policy stance – The Federal Reserve held rates steady, highlighting inflation risks from the conflict and signaling a cautious stance. While one rate cut is projected this year, policy easing will depend on clear signs of inflation cooling, keeping metals sensitive to macro data.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has reached its $4850 (~ Rs.152,000) support and may consolidate near current levels.
- Silver is testing key support at $75 (~ Rs.250,000); a breakdown could extend declines toward $72–70 (~ Rs.235,000–Rs.230,000).).
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4800/oz | $5250/oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹150,000/10 gm | ₹165,000/10 gm |
| Silver | International | $72/oz | $85/oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹235,000/kg | ₹268,000/kg |
Source:AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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