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Gold near fresh all-time highs ahead of US trading session

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Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is seeing gains tick up trading near $2,952 at the time of writing, fueled by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and softening US yields in a reaction to the recent German federal election outcome. Although the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained 20% of votes, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) is comfortable in the lead with 208 seats against AfD’s 152. US yields dropped off and the CME Federal Reserve (Fed) Futures are now favoring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June, where last week odds were rather for no rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, traders will watch the US Gross Domestic Product (GBP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 later this week. Given the recent slowdown in US activity and economic data (for example, the softer Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading on Friday), another drop in US yields could be triggered, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve lowering its monetary policy rate to boost the economy and demand. The US dollar weakened after several reports and economic data points last week revealed that US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, with expectations for inflation surging and markets pricing in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

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World Silver Survey 2026: A Transformative Era For The Silver Market, Characterized By Extreme Price Volatility

Landmark Year Where Supply-Demand Imbalances Finally Triggered Explosive Price Action

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The World Silver Survey 2026 details a transformative era for the silver market, characterized by extreme price volatility, a shifting industrial landscape, and a definitive end to the era of “unlimited liquidity.” After years of structural deficits, 2025 emerged as a landmark year where supply-demand imbalances finally triggered explosive price action.

Price Performance and Market Dynamics

Silver witnessed a spectacular ascent in 2025, surging from under $29/oz to a December peak of $84/oz. This momentum culminated in an all-time record of $121.60/oz in January 2026, before a hawkish Federal Reserve pivot and geopolitical conflict in Iran induced a sharp correction. Despite this volatility, the gold-to-silver ratio compressed significantly, reaching a decade-low of 55:1 by late 2025, signaling silver’s outperformance relative to gold.

Supply: Record Margins and Recycling

Global mine production rose 3% to 846.6 Moz in 2025. Growth was fueled by high-grade ramp-ups in Chile, Peru, and Russia, offsetting a 5% decline in Mexico caused by regulatory shifts and falling grades. Notably, primary silver mines now account for only 26% of global supply, leaving the market increasingly dependent on by-product output from copper and gold operations.

While production rose, the real story lay in profitability. Record gold prices boosted by-product credits, driving silver miners’ All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) down to $12.21/oz. This created a staggering 75% increase in profit margins, with nearly the entire primary silver sector remaining profitable. Additionally, recycling hit a 13-year high of 197.6 Moz, though refinery bottlenecks limited its full impact.

Demand: A Tale of Two Sectors

For the first time since the pandemic, total silver demand contracted by 2% to 1,130.6 Moz. This was driven by two main factors:

  • Industrial Thrifting: Industrial demand fell 3%, primarily due to the solar industry. As silver costs spiked to 20% of cell manufacturing costs, manufacturers accelerated “thrifting” technologies, reducing silver loading in photovoltaic (PV) cells.
  • Price Sensitivity: High prices crushed jewelry and silverware demand, particularly in India, where fabrication dropped 20%.

Conversely, physical investment remained robust. Demand for coins and bars rose 14%, led by a massive 33% surge in India and a doubling of investment demand in China.

The Liquidity Squeeze and 2026 Outlook

A critical theme of the report is the structural fragility of inventories. In October 2025, a convergence of ETP inflows and physical demand led to a liquidity squeeze in London, sending overnight lease rates to 200%. With London’s non-ETP stocks hitting record lows, the market proved it no longer has a “buffer” for sudden demand spikes.

Looking ahead to 2026, Metals Focus projects a sixth consecutive deficit of 46.3 Moz. While industrial and jewelry demand may continue to soften under price pressure, silver’s new status as a U.S. Critical Mineral and its growing role in AI data centers provide a strong floor. The market remains in a state of “permanent deficit,” where cumulative shortfalls (totaling 716 Moz over five years) ensure that silver remains a high-stakes, strategically vital asset.

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