International News
Gold near fresh all-time highs ahead of US trading session
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is seeing gains tick up trading near $2,952 at the time of writing, fueled by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and softening US yields in a reaction to the recent German federal election outcome. Although the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained 20% of votes, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) is comfortable in the lead with 208 seats against AfD’s 152. US yields dropped off and the CME Federal Reserve (Fed) Futures are now favoring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June, where last week odds were rather for no rate cut in June.
Meanwhile, traders will watch the US Gross Domestic Product (GBP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 later this week. Given the recent slowdown in US activity and economic data (for example, the softer Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading on Friday), another drop in US yields could be triggered, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve lowering its monetary policy rate to boost the economy and demand. The US dollar weakened after several reports and economic data points last week revealed that US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, with expectations for inflation surging and markets pricing in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
International News
June 2026 Gold ETF Flows-H1 flows remain positive: WGC GOLDHUB
Gold Market Trading Volumes Pulled Back In June Yet The H1 Average Reached An All-Time High.
June 2026 saw continued outflows from funds listed in all regions, yet global gold ETF flows have remained positive y-t-d. Global gold ETFs’ AUM reached US$526bn by the end of June, a 6% fall in H1 due mainly to a lower gold price; collective holdings in the first half were up 18t to 4,047t. Gold market trading volumes pulled back in June, yet the H1 average reached an all-time high.
June and H1 in review
Global investors further trimmed their gold ETF holdings in June. Physically backed gold ETFs1 saw outflows of US$8.9bn in the month. All regions experienced outflows, with North America losing the most. In the month, global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) fell 13% to US$526bn, whilst holdings reduced by 74t to 4,047t.
Despite June’s loss, global gold ETF flows remained positive at US$8bn in H1. Asia dominated global inflows – the region’s strongest H1 on record – while North America was the only region with losses. Europe saw healthy inflows. Global gold ETFs’ AUM fell 6% in H1, reflecting the lower gold price despite positive inflows. Collective holdings rose slightly by 18t (Chart 1).
Regional overview
North American funds lost US$5.5bn in June, bringing the region’s H1 outflows to US$7.7bn and resulting in the weakest first half since 2013. The notable gold price pullback in the month served as a key driver for investors to dial back their allocation to gold ETFs. As new Fed Chair Warsh sent hawkish – as the market interpreted – signals and the US-Iran conflict pushed inflation fears up, expectations intensified of higher interest rates ahead. This anticipation contributed to rising real yields and a strengthening dollar, pushing up investors’ opportunity costs of holding gold.
Looking ahead, regional gold ETF flows could stabilise. The macro consensus scenario in our 2026 Mid-Year Gold Outlook suggests relatively stable gold performance in H2, with potential catalysts possibly brewing a breakout in other scenarios. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding geopolitics, economic growth and financial markets linger. This backdrop may continue to support investor demand for portfolio protection and sustain interest in gold ETFs as a strategic safe-haven allocation.
European funds lost US$818mn in June, trimming their H1 inflows to US$3.2bn. Outflows were seen across major markets in the region during June. Across the region, we believe gold price weakness has been a major factor leading to net sales of gold ETFs by investors. Also in June, the European Central Bank hiked rates by 25bps, the first time since September 2023 citing inflation concerns amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. This move may have deterred some investors from gold. We have also observed continued outflows from FX-hedged products listed in the region, mainly in Switzerland amid local currency depreciation against the dollar, adding to European fund losses in June.
Asia witnessed outflows of US$2.3bn in June, the worst month on record. Despite this, the region experienced its strongest H1 ever, leading global inflows with a US$12bn addition. The June loss was mainly from Chinese funds, as local investor risk appetite continued to improve amid equity market gains and a weaker gold price. Japanese funds also saw outflows in the month as the Bank of Japan hiked rates, pushing up local investors’ opportunity cost of holding gold. India buckled the trend, attracting inflows in the month as local investors remained optimistic about the gold price and viewed the dip as entry opportunities.
Funds in other regions saw mild outflows of US$262mn in June, trimming their y-t-d buying to US$106mn. In June, Australian funds shed US$197mn and funds in South Africa lost US$36mn.
An unprecedented H1
Global gold market trading volumes moderated in June, falling 13% m/m to an average of US$373bn/day as activity cooled across over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange-traded markets. OTC activities declined 13% to US$214bn/day, although they continued to run well above the 2025 average of US$180bn/day. Trading volumes at the LBMA averaged US$187bn/day in June, 14% lower than May but 16% higher than the 2025 average. Meanwhile, exchange-traded contract volumes fell 13% to US$153bn/day. The notable exception was the gold ETF market, where trading activity increased 23% m/m to US$6.9bn/day, reflecting sustained investor interest.
Global gold market liquidity surged to record levels in H1 at US$488bn per day; the strongest semi-annual average in our data series (Chart 2). Strength was broad-based, with every major segment posting its most active semi-annual averages on record. OTC trading, led by the LBMA, averaged US$249bn/day, substantially above 2025 levels and underscoring the depth of institutional participation. Exchange-traded volumes also jumped, reaching US$227bn/day – 22% higher than the 2025 average – supported by elevated investor activity. Meanwhile, global gold ETF trading averaged US$12bn/day – up 73% from 2025 – fuelled primarily by robust trading in US funds as investors increasingly turned to gold amid heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite a weaker gold price, total COMEX net longs rebounded by 16% m/m to 538t, the highest month-end level since January.3 It is noteworthy that managed money net longs have been rising since early June despite a weakening gold price. A closer look at the CFTC positioning data reveals a divergence across investor cohorts: while non-reportable net longs – a proxy for retail participation – reduced during the month, other reportables, which capture large trades outside the managed money category, increased by 16% m/m.
Over H1, managed money net longs remained broadly stable, declining by just 43t y-t-d. But as was evident in June, investor behaviour through H1 differed: retail positioning largely tracked short-term price movements while larger traders’ positions have, in general, stayed stable since mid-March.
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