International News
Gold near fresh all-time highs ahead of US trading session
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is seeing gains tick up trading near $2,952 at the time of writing, fueled by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and softening US yields in a reaction to the recent German federal election outcome. Although the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained 20% of votes, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) is comfortable in the lead with 208 seats against AfD’s 152. US yields dropped off and the CME Federal Reserve (Fed) Futures are now favoring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June, where last week odds were rather for no rate cut in June.
Meanwhile, traders will watch the US Gross Domestic Product (GBP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 later this week. Given the recent slowdown in US activity and economic data (for example, the softer Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading on Friday), another drop in US yields could be triggered, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve lowering its monetary policy rate to boost the economy and demand. The US dollar weakened after several reports and economic data points last week revealed that US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, with expectations for inflation surging and markets pricing in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
International News
Precious Metals Under Pressure As Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation and Rate Concerns AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Stabilized Near $4,500 After A Near 2% Decline, Weighed Down By Escalating Middle East Tensions That Have Pushed Energy Prices Sharply Higher
- Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold stabilised near $4,500 after a near 2% decline, weighed down by escalating Middle East tensions that have pushed energy prices sharply higher and stoked inflation fears. The resulting inflationary pressure has reinforced market expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.
- Geopolitical Developments – US forces successfully defended against Iranian attacks while escorting two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and attributed a significant fire at its Fujairah port to an Iranian drone strike. These incidents followed President Trump’s directive to restore safe passage through Hormuz and assist stranded vessels, though shipowners remain cautious given the heightened security environment.
- Macro-economic Signals – The renewed escalation has undermined confidence in the four-week ceasefire, triggering a surge in oil prices and global bond yields on expectations of tighter monetary policy ahead. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, while markets have begun pricing rate hikes for 2027 — the probability of a January 2027 increase has jumped to 22% from near zero just one week prior.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is expected to trade in the range of $4500-$4850 (~ Rs 148,000 -155,000).
- Silver is expected to trade in the range of $71-$80 (~ Rs 235,000 -255,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4450/oz : $4850/oz : Rs 145,000/10 gm : Rs 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $68/oz : $77/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 255,000/kg |
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