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Gold faces tug-of-war at highs: Augmont Bullion Report

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Gold markets are in a tug-of-war at highs, with bears focusing on a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and bulls anticipating key U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path amid trade tensions and economic slowdown fears.

The US agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal.

U.S. President Donald Trump defended his tariff policies during a meeting with CEOs of major American companies. Many of these companies have seen their market value fall due to recession and inflation fears.

Investors are awaiting U.S. CPI statistics to determine the Fed’s interest rate stance for this year.

Technical Triggers      

Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for a decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000). 

Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $33(~Rs 96700), the next target is $34(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $35(~Rs 103,000).

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International News

Middle East  conflict halts India-UAE diamond trade

Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.

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Iran has launched over 1,300 drones and 229 missiles at the UAE since February 28, 2026, in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes that killed over 1,000 people, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. UAE air defenses intercepted most threats, but the attacks caused 3 deaths and 112 injuries, with debris damaging civilian areas.

Trade Dependencies

The UAE supplies more than two-thirds of India’s rough diamond imports, making it the dominant source for the country’s diamond processing industry. India, in turn, provides over 90% of the UAE’s polished diamond imports, underscoring the bilateral trade’s critical role in global diamond flows.

Logistics Breakdown

Nearly all flights between India and the UAE stand cancelled amid the conflict, except limited repatriation services, crippling air cargo routes. Daily diamond export parcels—typically 400 to 500 from India to UAE—have stopped entirely due to airspace closures and flight suspensions.

Industry Impact

Exports and imports from the Middle East have ground to a standstill, with no logistics available to move goods,

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), hub of the Dubai Diamond Exchange, shifted to remote operations and declined further comment on disruptions.

Broader Implications

The Middle East accounts for nearly a quarter of India’s $30 billion annual gems and jewellery exports, amplifying the economic fallout for Mumbai’s diamond trade ecosystem. Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.

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