International News
Gold clinches $4000 finally AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Gold active futures reached a new high, hitting $4000 (~ Rs 120,900), as financial markets became increasingly unsettled due to the US government shutdown and a French political crisis. The political upheavals in Japan and France are escalating fiscal worries and fueling the gold rally.
- After unsuccessful attempts to come to an agreement with political parties about budget spending, which prevented efforts to control the biggest fiscal deficit in the euro area, Sebastien Lecornu resigned as the prime minister of France. The financial markets have also been shaken by Sanae Takaichi’s almost certain promotion to the position of prime minister of Japan.
- This week, the US government shutdown continued, and the White House threatened to lay off a large number of federal employees. Additionally, this has prevented investors from accessing crucial information required to evaluate the state of the US economy, which further muddies the Fed’s decision-making process. The Fed’s latest interest rate cut and the expectation of more have helped, and central banks and gold-backed exchange-traded funds have been eager buyers.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has achieved the target of $4000 (~Rs 120,900) today. This rally can show more upward spikes, but one needs to be very cautious at this level. We can also see sharp sell-offs, as the psychological target is achieved. If Gold falls below $3850 (~Rs 117,000), we can say, top has been made, and a correction will follow.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $3850/oz | $4000/oz |
| Indian | ₹117,000 / 10 gm | ₹121,000 / 10 gm | |
| Silver | International | $46.50/oz | $50/oz |
| Indian | ₹142,000 / kg | ₹150,000 / kg |
International News
Precious Metals Find Support On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Is Trading At Y Oversold Levels Near The Critical Support Zone Of $4,300, Silver Testing Key Support In The $66–$67 Range
- Price Movement – Gold and silver are consolidating near key support levels as markets digest a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside mounting concerns over inflation and the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that both parties are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations advancing. Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to hostilities following a direct appeal from Washington. However, Tehran cautioned that it reserves the right to resume strikes if Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.
- Macro-economic Signals – CME FedWatch data shows markets now pricing a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Investors are closely watching May’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases, due Wednesday, for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The European Central Bank is also widely expected to deliver a rate increase this week.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is currently trading at deeply oversold levels near the critical support zone of $4,300 (approximately Rs. 1,54,000). A technical rebound of 3–4% is anticipated from current levels, driven by bottom-fishing activity. However, a sustained break below this support would shift the near-term bias decisively lower, exposing the $4,000–$4,100 range (approximately Rs. 1,50,000–Rs. 1,51,500) as the next downside target.
- Silver is similarly oversold, testing key support in the $66–$67 range (approximately Rs. 2,40,000–Rs. 2,42,000). As with gold, a 3–4% technical recovery is the base case on dip-buying, but a confirmed sustainability below this support would accelerate selling pressure toward $60 (approximately Rs. 2,20,000) in the short term.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4300/oz : $4500/oz : Rs 154,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $66/oz : $75/oz : Rs 240,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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