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Global diamond trade entered 2026 with subdued sentiment

The global diamond industry has entered 2026 facing a “K-shaped” recovery. While the high-end luxury segment remains resilient, the mass-market and smaller-stone categories are under severe pressure from geopolitical and technological shifts.

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The global diamond trade entered 2026 with subdued sentiment and familiar pressures, according to Rapaport. December trends underscored a clear divide in demand, with polished diamonds above 1 carat holding firm while smaller goods saw sharp price corrections. US dealers reported a steady holiday season, marked by cautious inventory management and late-stage buying, particularly for 1.20-carat and larger stones and long fancy shapes.

India’s export activity slowed under the weight of US tariffs, while domestic demand softened after a strong 2025. Concerns around lab-grown diamonds intensified following Titan’s launch of its beYon brand. China continued to show weak appetite.

Price data reflected the imbalance. The RapNet Diamond Index for 1-carat diamonds fell 2.3% in December, while 0.30-carat and 0.50-carat goods dropped 9.3% and 6.4% respectively. Larger stones remained resilient, with the 3-carat index edging up.

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Botswana Looks Beyond Rough Diamond Sales, Eyes U.S. Jewelry Market

The Duty Exemption By US Presents An Opportunity For Domestic Jewelry Manufacturers In Gaborone To Bypass Traditional Middle-Market Hubs and Establish A Direct Pipeline To American Consumers

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Grappling with a painful downturn in global rough-diamond demand, Botswana is pivoting its economic strategy: expanding up the supply chain directly into American retail shelves while leveraging its resource wealth to fund conservation and diversification.

Speaking on the sidelines of New York Climate Week, Bogolo Joy Kenewendo, Botswana’s Minister of Minerals and Energy, highlighted the southern African nation’s plan to capitalize on a 0% import-tariff rate to the U.S. market. The duty exemption presents an opportunity for domestic jewelry manufacturers in Gaborone to bypass traditional middle-market hubs and establish a direct pipeline to American consumers.

shift The push into value-added manufacturing comes as the world’s top diamond producer by value navigates a broader structural Diamond revenues have long formed the bedrock of Botswana’s post-independence balance sheet, underwriting universal secondary education and tuition-free university funding. However, recent market volatility has underscored the vulnerabilities of a mono-sectoral economy.

Under the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP)—an initiative spearheaded directly by President Duma Boko and his vice president—the government is directing resources toward manufacturing, agriculture, and broader mining sectors to reduce its heavy reliance on rough diamond sales.

To support its luxury exports, Botswana is recalibrating its brand narrative around origin, environmental stewardship, and social impact. The country recently announced a five-year extension of the “Okavango Eternal” partnership alongside De Beers Group and the National Geographic Society. The initiative aims to protect the ecological integrity of the Okavango River Basin while tying diamond purchases to conservation efforts.

With De Beers currently facing an impending ownership change, officials remain optimistic that any capital restructuring could bring additional funds into Botswana to accelerate its domestic economic transition.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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