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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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DiamondBuzz

Rio Tinto’s Diamond Division Posts $79 Million EBITDA Loss in 2025

Higher output from Canada’s Diavik Diamond Mine offsets revenue decline, but end-of-life pressures continue to weigh on performance.

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Rio Tinto reported a challenging year for its diamond business in 2025, posting an underlying EBITDA loss of $79 million despite improved revenues. While the loss narrowed compared to the $115 million deficit recorded in 2024, the division remained under pressure amid a global diamond market slowdown and the nearing closure of its last active mine.

Annual revenue rose 19% to $332 million, supported by stronger production at the Diavik mine in Canada, Rio Tinto’s only remaining diamond operation. Output climbed 61% to 4.4 million carats, driven by the ramp-up of mining activities in the underground section of the A21 deposit, which began scaling up in late 2024.

However, the A21 underground ore body is expected to be depleted by the end of the first quarter of 2026, marking the end of Diavik’s operational life. The company plans to spend approximately $1 billion this year on closure activities related to Diavik, as well as rehabilitation work at the former Argyle Diamond Mine, which ceased production in 2020, and other non-diamond projects.

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