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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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International News

Dubai Records Highest-Ever Diamond Trade In 2025

Natural Diamonds Continued To Dominate The Market, Contributing US$39.9 billion, Or 96% Of Dubai’s Total Diamond Trade Value In 2025.

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Dubai achieved a record performance in its diamond trade in 2025, reaching its highest-ever levels in both value and volume, according to the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC).

The total value of diamond imports and exports increased 16% year-on-year to US$41.7 billion, up from US$35.8 billion in 2024. Trade volume also surged 43% to 359.5 million carats, marking the first time Dubai has recorded all-time highs in both value and physical volume.

DMCC CEO Ahmed Bin Sulayem said the strong performance reflects Dubai’s long-term strategy of building a transparent, connected, and efficient global hub for the diamond trade. Since 2020, diamond trade through Dubai has doubled in volume and grown nearly 140% in value.

Natural diamonds continued to dominate the market, contributing US$39.9 billion, or 96% of Dubai’s total diamond trade value in 2025.

Trade in rough diamonds reached 205.2 million carats, the second-highest volume on record and around 34% higher than in 2024. The value of natural polished diamond trade rose nearly 25% to US$18.7 billion. Since 2020, the value of natural polished diamond trade through Dubai has increased by 246%.

Over the past decade, Dubai’s overall diamond trade has grown 63% in value and 44% in volume, reinforcing its position as one of the world’s leading diamond trading centres.

The emirate also recorded strong growth in other precious stones. Coloured gemstone trade climbed 48% to a record US$1.1 billion, supported by a 69% increase in imports and a 34% rise in exports. Meanwhile, synthetic and industrial diamonds accounted for around 39% of the total diamond trade volume in 2025.

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