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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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International News

Natural Diamonds Cut In Europe Will No Longer Face US Import Tariffs, Decision Is Expected To Benefit Antwerp

The Main Reason Was That The US Does Not Have A Domestic Diamond Mining Or Cutting Industry That Needs Protection From European imports.

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Natural diamonds cut in Europe will no longer face US import tariffs after the US government removed the 10% duty that had been in place for the past six months.

The decision is expected to benefit Antwerp, Europe’s largest diamond cutting and trading hub. According to the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), Belgium exported $2.1 billion worth of polished diamonds to the US in 2024.

The exemption was first introduced in September 2025 after discussions between the AWDC and the European Commission. The main reason was that the US does not have a domestic diamond mining or cutting industry that needs protection from European imports.

The reasons for granting the exemption remain unchanged- no diamonds are mined or cut in the US, so there is no local industry that requires tariff protection.

The earlier exemption ended in February 2026 after the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The US government then imposed a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, which also applied to European polished diamonds.

After this surcharge expired on July 24, the US introduced new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act. These tariffs target countries that do not have adequate measures to prevent imports linked to forced labor. However, natural diamonds cut in Europe have been exempted from these tariffs.

According to the US Trade Representative (USTR), the European Union is still strengthening its forced-labor regulations, which are expected to be fully implemented by December 2027.

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