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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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Consortium Led By Former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny Selected As The Preferred Bidder To Acquire De Beers

Botswana is expected to play a pivotal role in the transaction. The country, together with Namibia, Angola and other shareholders, already owns a 15% stake in De Beers

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A consortium headed by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny has been selected as the preferred bidder to acquire De Beers, according to Botswana’s Minister for State President, Defence and Security, Moeti Mohwasa.

Speaking on the development, Mohwasa said Anglo American conducted a competitive sale process involving three shortlisted bidders before identifying the Global Diamond Consortium as its preferred choice.

Anglo American announced plans to divest De Beers in May 2024 as part of a broader restructuring strategy, driven by prolonged weakness in the diamond market and other business priorities.

The sale process has attracted significant interest from industry leaders and investors. Among those previously linked to the bidding were former De Beers CEO Bruce Cleaver, Australian mining executive Michael O’Keeffe, Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal, and Indian diamond companies KGK Group and Kapu Gems.

Botswana is expected to play a pivotal role in the transaction. The country, together with Namibia, Angola and other shareholders, already owns a 15% stake in De Beers and retains important rights under the shareholder agreement. Mohwasa emphasized that Botswana has the flexibility to either join the preferred bidder as a strategic partner or exercise its pre-emptive rights independently or with another investor.

Industry observers believe the eventual owner will seek to preserve De Beers’ vertically integrated business model, spanning diamond mining, trading and global natural diamond marketing, while positioning the company to benefit from a potential recovery in natural diamond demand and prices.

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