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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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Hard Pure Gold to redefine China gold jewellery sector

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Record-high gold prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, these same factors also create challenges for the jewellery industry, as rising prices increase the cost of entry for consumers. In response, the industry is exploring product innovation to sustain demand. In Greater China, Hard Pure Gold is emerging as a strategic initiative designed to balance high purity, design flexibility, and affordability.

Promoted by the World Gold Council, Hard Pure Gold combines traditional purity levels—typically above 99%—with advanced manufacturing technologies such as electroforming and lost-wax casting. These processes increase the hardness of pure gold, allowing jewellers to create more intricate designs, improve durability, and support gemstone settings. At the same time, hollow-forming techniques enable lighter pieces that maintain visual impact while reducing overall weight and price.

The category also benefits from the introduction of an industry-wide standard in 2025, which clarified production guidelines and unified marketing terminology across manufacturers. Standardisation has helped build consumer trust and strengthened the positioning of Hard Pure Gold as a distinct product segment.

A key driver of its growth is changing consumer demographics. Traditionally, pure gold jewellery in China appealed primarily to middle-aged buyers who valued gold for wealth preservation. Hard Pure Gold, however, is attracting younger consumers aged 20–35 by offering contemporary designs, lighter weight, and lower entry prices without sacrificing purity. Surveys conducted by the World Gold Council indicate that it is currently the fastest-growing category within the gold jewellery segment in Greater China.

In a high-price environment, the ability to produce jewellery that looks substantial yet weighs as little as 1.5 grams helps make gold more accessible to new buyers. At the same time, increasing trade-in activity—where consumers exchange older jewellery for newer designs—encourages repeat purchases and keeps demand active.

From a strategic perspective, Hard Pure Gold demonstrates how technological innovation and coordinated industry standards can reshape consumer perception. By merging investment-grade purity with modern design and affordability, it offers a compelling pathway for sustaining gold jewellery demand in Greater China

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