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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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International News

Israel’s Diamond Industry Hits Record Lows

From January To June 2026, Israel Exported Only $2.4 Billion In Diamonds. At Its Peak In 2015, That Figure Was Around $7 Billion—More Than Three Times Higher.

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Israel’s diamond exports have dropped dramatically to their lowest levels in history. Reflecting these difficult times, the head of the Israel Diamond Exchange has announced his resignation.

Key Numbers

  • Massive Drop in Exports: From January to June 2026, Israel exported only $2.4 billion in diamonds. At its peak in 2015, that figure was around $7 billion—more than three times higher.
  • Total Trade Shrinking: Total industry trade (combining imports and exports) fell to $4 billion, down from $12 billion during its best years.

Why Is the Industry Struggling?

  1. Competition from Dubai: Dubai has become a major global diamond hub, drawing traders away from Israel with lower tax rates.
  2. Lab-Grown Diamonds: Man-made diamonds are significantly cheaper than natural ones, taking away a large portion of the market.
  3. New U.S. Tariffs: A new 10% import tax on diamonds was recently introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Since the U.S. buys about 20% of Israel’s diamond exports, this tax hits the local industry hard.
  4. Shifting Consumer Habits: Younger buyers are spending more money on experiences rather than luxury jewelry. Additionally, diamond demand in China has slowed down significantly.

Global Impact & What’s Next

The downturn isn’t just affecting Israel; it is a global issue. Even De Beers—one of the world’s biggest diamond companies—has been put up for sale for the first time ever.

Despite these setbacks, Israel still holds key advantages in the market, such as strong client relationships and deep expertise in cutting large, rare, and colored diamonds. Israeli officials are currently negotiating with the U.S. to lower the new tariffs and working with their own government for tax relief to help the industry bounce back.

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