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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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International News

Gemfields Reports Updated G-Factor Metrics, Highlights Government Revenue Contributions

10-year Data Underscores Fiscal Impact From Kagem and Montepuez Operations Amid Evolving Market Conditions

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Gemfields has released its latest G-Factor for Natural Resources figures, offering an updated view of how its mining operations contribute to host government revenues. The data, announced on April 9, 2026 in London, covers the period up to December 31, 2025.

Over the 2016–2025 period, the company reported a G-Factor of 17% for its Kagem emerald mine in Zambia and 26% for Montepuez Ruby Mining in Mozambique. The G-Factor measures the share of revenue paid to governments through channels such as royalties, taxes, dividends, and other levies, offering a transparent benchmark of economic contribution.

Looking specifically at 2025, Montepuez Ruby Mining recorded a G-Factor of 23%, contributing $11.3 million to the Government of Mozambique on revenues of $49.9 million. Meanwhile, Kagem posted a lower 6% G-Factor, with $4.9 million paid to the Zambian government against revenues of $84.1 million.

The dip at Kagem was linked to operational disruptions, including a temporary suspension of mining between January and April 2025, as well as the impact of a 15% export tax on precious gemstones, which was later lifted in March 2025.

CEO Sean Gilbertson noted that the figures reflect varying operating and market conditions. While Montepuez saw lower premium ruby output, alongside a delayed auction and challenges such as illegal mining, its overall contribution ratio remained relatively stable.

Introduced in 2021, the G-Factor serves as a transparency tool for the natural resources sector, helping stakeholders assess how effectively resource extraction translates into public revenue.

Gemfields expects Kagem’s performance to move back toward its long-term average of around 18% as operations normalise and market dynamics improve. The company continues to advocate for wider industry adoption of the metric to enhance accountability and comparability across the sector.

The G-Factor for Natural Resources is expressed as a percentage and is calculated as:

Ap + Bp + Cp + Dp

—————————————

              Ep

where:

· A = the total mineral royalty (tax on revenue) paid by the reporting company to the host

country government during the period

· B = the total corporation tax (tax on profit) paid by the reporting company to the host

country government during the period

· C = the dividends paid by the reporting company to the host country government during

the period (where the host country government is a shareholder in the reporting company)

· D = the total export taxes or export levies paid by the reporting company to the host

country government during the period

· E = the total revenues of the reporting company during the period

· p = the relevant period, typically calculated for each of (i) the prior year; (ii) the preceding

5 years and (iii) the preceding 10 years

· The sums actually paid during the period (rather than the sums accrued or falling due during

the period) are used for A, B, C, and D.

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