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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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International News

Middle East  conflict halts India-UAE diamond trade

Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.

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Iran has launched over 1,300 drones and 229 missiles at the UAE since February 28, 2026, in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes that killed over 1,000 people, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. UAE air defenses intercepted most threats, but the attacks caused 3 deaths and 112 injuries, with debris damaging civilian areas.

Trade Dependencies

The UAE supplies more than two-thirds of India’s rough diamond imports, making it the dominant source for the country’s diamond processing industry. India, in turn, provides over 90% of the UAE’s polished diamond imports, underscoring the bilateral trade’s critical role in global diamond flows.

Logistics Breakdown

Nearly all flights between India and the UAE stand cancelled amid the conflict, except limited repatriation services, crippling air cargo routes. Daily diamond export parcels—typically 400 to 500 from India to UAE—have stopped entirely due to airspace closures and flight suspensions.

Industry Impact

Exports and imports from the Middle East have ground to a standstill, with no logistics available to move goods,

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), hub of the Dubai Diamond Exchange, shifted to remote operations and declined further comment on disruptions.

Broader Implications

The Middle East accounts for nearly a quarter of India’s $30 billion annual gems and jewellery exports, amplifying the economic fallout for Mumbai’s diamond trade ecosystem. Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.

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