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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

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U.S. specialty jewellery retailers recorded a 5.7% y-o-y  revenue increase in Sept 2026:Tenoris

The growth continues to be driven primarily by high-end purchases rather than sales volume. Average consumer spend per item jumped 11% in September, offsetting an 11% drop in sales volume for lower-priced merchandise.

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U.S. specialty jewelry retailers recorded a 5.7% year-over-year revenue increase in September 2026, extending nearly two years of continuous monthly growth despite broader economic headwinds, according to new data from industry analytics firm Tenoris. Year-to-date jewelry revenues are now up 8.5%.

The growth continues to be driven primarily by high-end purchases rather than sales volume. Average consumer spend per item jumped 11% in September, offsetting an 11% drop in sales volume for lower-priced merchandise.

Key insights from the September report include:

  • Diamond Market Dynamics: Sales of finished diamond jewelry dipped slightly by 0.6%, though average spending per stone rose 11%.
  • Lab-Grown Segment: Demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry surged nearly 26% year-over-year. However, revenue for loose lab-grown diamonds fell for a fifth straight month due to declining prices.
  • Outperforming Broader Luxury: While overall U.S. luxury spending fell 6% in September—according to recent Citi credit card data—jewelry sales remained comparatively resilient, driven by affluent buyers.

When overall revenue increases even as the number of individual items sold drops, it creates a optical illusion of growth. On paper, top-line financial performance looks strong, but underneath, the business is relying on fewer transactions at much higher prices.Heading into the high-volume fourth quarter—driven by holiday shopping—this dynamic presents specific operational challenges and strategic risks for jewelry retailers.

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