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FED cautious outlook caps gain in precious metals AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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- While we wait to see what happens next in the Israel-Iran confrontation, gold has slightly recovered. If the United States choose to intervene directly in the battle, the geopolitical tensions may increase.
- The U.S. Military has evacuated some ships and aircraft from Middle Eastern locations that could be attacked by Iran.
- Interest rates were kept unchanged by the Fed on Wednesday. The rate cut pace was slowed, but Fed policymakers still expect to cut rates by half a percentage point this year.
- But as greater import tariffs loom, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned against placing too much emphasis on this prediction, pointing to “meaningful” inflation in the future.
Technical Triggers
- Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of $3360(~Rs 99000) and $3475 (~Rs 101,000).
- Silver has crossed the $37 (~Rs 109,000) resistance. The next target is $38 (~Rs 112,000) if this positive momentum continues.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Region | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $3300/oz | $3500/oz |
| Indian | ₹96,000/10 gm | ₹1,01,000/10 gm | |
| Silver | International | $36/oz | $38/oz |
| Indian | ₹1,05,000/kg | ₹1,12,000/kg |
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- A day after gold broke over the critical $4000 mark to reach a record high due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty and expectations of further U.S. interest rate reduction, investors booked profits, which caused gold to ease a bit.
- The first part of a peace proposal between Israel and Hamas has been agreed upon by President Donald Trump, possibly bringing an end to the two-year conflict and releasing captives. This agreement has been verified by mediator Qatar, Israeli officials, and Hamas.
- Powell is scheduled to make introductory remarks in a pre-recorded video at the Federal Reserve Board-hosted Community Bank Conference in Washington, DC, amid a data-poor US docket.
- Powell’s clues about the Fed’s interest rate strategy in the face of the impending shutdown could cause a big spike in the price of gold denominated in US dollars.
Technical Triggers
- As the bull run continues, the gold rally, which has reached $4081 (~Rs 123,450), can show more upward spikes towards $4150(~Rs 125,000), but one needs to be very cautious at this level. On the other hand, if Gold falls below $3950 (~Rs 120,000), we can say, top has been made, and a correction will follow.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Region | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $3850/oz | $4150/oz |
| Indian | ₹117,000 / 10 gm | ₹125,000 / 10 gm | |
| Silver | International | $46.50/oz | $50/oz |
| Indian | ₹142,000 / kg | ₹150,000 / kg |
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