Dhanteras consumer sentiment in Mumbai is optimistic, despite high gold prices, with buyers focusing on lightweight and lower-carat jewelry, coins, and bars as both a tradition and a long-term investment. The high gold prices have led to a shift in purchasing habits, with customers buying smaller quantities of gold but still showing confident purchases due to the belief that it is a stable asset.

Retailers are also seeing increased interest in gold coins and versatile daily-wear jewellery, as buyers seek both aesthetic appeal and financial security. A notable trend is early buying by families with weddings planned for 2026, aiming to lock in current prices before anticipated hikes. This strategic buying behaviour is expected to contribute to a projected 12-15% growth in gold sales this year.

I. Retail Jeweller’s Strategy: ‘Smart and Strategic Buying’

• Focus on Lightweight Jewellery: Middle-class households are expected to adhere to the custom of shagun (auspicious) buying by purchasing in smaller quantities. The demand is heavily skewed towards lightweight items like nose pins, small earrings, and simple pendants to manage the high prices.
• Shift to Investment Products: There is a strong rise in demand for gold coins, bars, and low-denomination digital gold. These products offer guaranteed purity and investment value with minimal making charges, prioritizing investment over adornment.
• Aggressive Jeweller Schemes: Leading retailers are countering high prices with schemes such as advanced installment plans, reduced making charges on specific collections, and guaranteed gold rates to ensure purchases.

II. Consumer Psychology and Macro Drivers

• The FOMO Factor: The spectacular 60%+ surge in gold prices over the last year has created a strong ‘Fear of Missing Out’ (FOMO). Buyers are motivated to purchase now, believing the upward price momentum will continue due to global geopolitical tensions and US rate cut expectations.
• Liquidity Boost from Tax Cuts: Recent personal income tax cuts and budgetary relief have increased disposable income and household liquidity. A portion of this saved capital is being strategically directed toward gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Indirect Tax Support: The organized retail sector benefits indirectly from the simplification of the GST structure (3% GST on gold, 5% on making charges), which helps bolster consumer confidence and spending power.

III. Market Outlook for Dhanteras

• Robust Value Performance: This Dhanteras is unlikely to set a record in terms of sheer volume (quantity) of gold sold.
• High Strategic Value: The market is poised for a robust performance in terms of monetary value and strategic investment participation.
• Cautious but Committed Consumer: The Indian consumer remains cautious of the high price but is unwilling to miss the auspicious buying opportunity or the potential for further price appreciation.