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SILVER INSTITUTE REPORT Global silver market forecast to remain in a sizeable deficit in 2025

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1. Market Deficit Dynamics

  • Fifth Consecutive Deficit: The silver market is projected to remain in a deficit of 149 million ounces (Moz) in 2025, marking the fifth straight year of supply shortfalls. Though the deficit shrinks by 19% year-on-year, it remains historically significant, signaling persistent structural imbalances.
  • Demand Stability: Global demand holds steady at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial applications (notably green tech and electronics) offsetting declines in jewelry and silverware.

2. Industrial Demand Drivers

  • Record Industrial Use: Industrial fabrication grows 3% to over 700 Moz, driven by:
    • Green Economy: Photovoltaics (PV) installations hit new highs globally, despite potential U.S. renewable energy slowdowns under Trump.
    • Automotive Sector: Vehicle electrification and infrastructure expansion boost silver use, even with slower EV growth.
    • AI and Electronics: Artificial intelligence drives demand for consumer electronics.

3. Jewelry and Silverware Weakness

  • Price Sensitivity: High silver prices lead to a 6% drop in jewelry demand (notably -10%+ in India) and a 16% decline in silverware fabrication.
  • Western Resilience: Shift from gold to silver jewelry in Western markets supports demand, particularly for branded products.

4. Supply-Side Growth

  • Mine Production Rises 2%: Output reaches 844 Moz (7-year high), aided by expansions in Canada (Keno Hill), Chile (Salares Norte), Morocco (Zgounder), and China.
  • Recycling Surge: Recycling grows 5% to over 200 Moz (first since 2012), led by industrial scrap (e.g., ethylene oxide catalysts) and Indian price-driven liquidations.
  • Base Metal Risks: Flat by-product output from lead-zinc mines due to suppressed base metal prices poses supply risks.

5. Investment Trends

  • Recovery in Physical Investment: Up 3% in Europe/North America as investors adjust to higher prices, though India sees profit-taking.
  • Macro Drivers: Geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. debt concerns, and potential Fed rate cuts underpin safe-haven demand. Short covering in futures markets (linked to Trump tariff fears) boosts prices.
  • Gold-Silver Ratio: Elevated ratio suggests silver may be undervalued relative to gold, offering potential upside if sentiment shifts.

6. Risks and Challenges

  • Trade Policy Impact: Trump’s tariffs could dampen global growth and industrial metals demand, though silver’s dual role (industrial/investment) may buffer it.
  • Real Rates and Inflation: Sticky inflation and anticipated rate cuts could lower real rates, benefiting precious metals.

7. Forward Outlook

  • Price Support: Deficit persistence, industrial demand resilience, and safe-haven inflows suggest a bullish floor for prices.
  • Watchpoints: Tariff impacts, base metal production trends, and Fed policy shifts will be critical in 2025.

The 2025 silver market reflects a delicate balance: robust industrial demand and investment recovery counterbalance supply growth and jewelry weakness. While risks from trade policies and base metals linger, silver’s structural role in the green transition and as a monetary asset positions it for sustained relevance. Investors should monitor the April 2025 World Silver Survey for deeper insights into evolving dynamics

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International News

Jewells Partners with Hammerson to Launch Debut UK Stores

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Westquay in Southampton and The Oracle in Reading will be the first new stores to open on 30 May, followed by two more at Bullring Birmingham and London’s Brent Cross from June.

Each location will be around 1,000 square feet and will showcase Jewells’ demi-fine jewellery, using materials including gold, silver, sustainable lab-grown diamonds and semi-precious stones.

These new spaces are set to be home to bespoke consultations, workshops, and immersive experiences.

Jewells’ chief brand officer Leah Uka says: “Launching our first-ever physical spaces in key destinations across the country has been an important process for us.

“We have ambitious expansion plans targeting 2,000 stores across 45 countries within five years, and to make that possible, it was necessary for us to establish the brand in the kinds of high-footfall and high-quality retail destinations that Hammerson have, to engage existing and new customers and create a wonderful retail experience for them.”

Paul O’Brien, Hammerson’s director of leasing and commercialisation, adds: “The decision for Jewells to open four of its first stores across our portfolio demonstrates the quality of our destinations and the confidence that leading retailers have in what Hammerson delivers.

“It also shows the pace we can execute deals, the support we can give to new entrants as they enter our markets, and a collaborative approach to delivering at scale.

“Jewells is backed by a proven operator and is an excellent fit for each of our locations, resonating with the young, fashion-forward audience our city destinations attract.”

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Pomellato Celebrates Cannes Boutique Launch During Film Festival with Star-Studded Cocktail Event

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Luxury Italian jeweller Pomellato unveiled its elegant new boutique in Cannes last week, marking the occasion with an exclusive cocktail party during the Cannes Film Festival. Among the high-profile guests was Alessandra Ambrosio, joined by model Maria Borges, Brazilian actress and singer Anttonia, and friends of the brand from across the French Riviera.

Designed to reflect Milanese elegance, the boutique offers a refined yet inviting retail experience. The interior features raw silk panels by Misha Milano, custom cast-glass wall sconces by design studio 6:AM, and Botolo chairs in Pomellato’s signature Montenapoleone red, designed by trailblazing female architect Cini Boeri.

Pink marble counters pay tribute to Milan’s iconic Duomo, while rounded architectural details create a warm ambiance. The boutique also houses a private salon adorned with artwork by Nicolò Quirico and a bespoke carpet inspired by the work of designer Fede Cheti, celebrating Milan’s design heritage and the contributions of female creatives.

The new location showcases Pomellato’s signature collections including Nudo, Iconica, Catene, and standout high jewellery creations, offering a luxurious destination for jewellery lovers in the heart of Cannes.

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International News

Rare Colored Gems Take Center Stage at Bonhams Hong Kong Auction

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A dazzling array of colored diamonds and rare gemstones will headline Bonhams’ upcoming Jewels and Jadeite sale in Hong Kong on May 22, with standout pieces expected to fetch up to HKD 5 million ($640,000).

Leading the sale is a striking pink diamond ring featuring a 1.08-carat, fancy vivid pink, internally flawless diamond. The modified shield brilliant-cut stone is mounted in a contemporary setting and surrounded by 13.90 carats of round brilliant and tapered baguette-cut diamonds.

Also among the top highlights:

  • The Kat Florence Lumina, an unmounted 181.61-carat cushion-cut greenish-blue Paraiba-type tourmaline, shares the spotlight with the pink diamond, both carrying an estimate of HKD 5 million ($640,000).
  • A pair of ruby and diamond earrings by Harry Winston, with center rubies weighing 6.98 and 6.96 carats, is expected to fetch up to HKD 3.8 million ($490,000).
  • A ruby and diamond fringe necklace, showcasing 44 oval Burmese rubies totaling 49.09 carats and a prominent pendant ruby, could reach HKD 2.8 million ($360,000).
  • A 7.03-carat fancy vivid yellow diamond ring, internally flawless, is estimated at HKD 2.5 million ($320,000).
  • A Cartier panther bracelet, set with 18.10 carats of diamonds, 12 carats of sapphires, emerald eyes, and an onyx nose, also carries an estimate of HKD 2.5 million ($320,000).
  • A 15.06-carat orange-red Tanzanian spinel ring, flanked by diamonds, may achieve HKD 2 million ($260,000).

Rounding out the top lots are several vibrant yellow and Paraiba tourmaline rings, each estimated between HKD 1.5 million and HKD 1.9 million ($190,000–$240,000).

Renowned names such as Harry Winston, Cartier, and Bulgari will be represented, offering collectors a rare chance to acquire exceptional pieces from leading design houses.

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