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Chow Sang Sang sees 15% decline in sales, 20% drop in profit

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Chow Sang Sang’s- China’s third biggest jewelry retailer (by revenue) – 2024 financial results reveal a company grappling with significant headwinds in its core markets. The reported net loss of 74 stores out of 1,032, coupled with a 15% decline in sales and a 20% drop in profit, paints a picture of a retailer under considerable pressure.

Significant Closures: The closure of 122 stores, predominantly in Mainland China, highlights a strategic retreat in response to declining sales. This indicates a recognition of over-saturation or underperforming locations. Limited Expansion: Opening only 48 stores suggests a conservative approach, focusing on optimizing existing resources rather than aggressive expansion.Future Uncertainty: The company’s statement regarding “prudent… physical store network consolidation” implies further closures are possible, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on near-term market recovery.

Revenue Decline: The 15% drop in revenue (HKD 21.18bn) signifies a substantial reduction in consumer spending on jewelry .Profit Slump: The 20% decrease in profit (HKD 805.6m) underscores the impact of reduced sales and potentially heightened operational costs.Same-Store Sales Decline: The steep decline in same-store sales (38% in Mainland China and 24% in Hong Kong and Macau) indicates a systemic issue, not just localized problems. This suggests a broader consumer shift away from jewelry purchases.

Weak Demand: The report attributes the poor performance to “weak demand,” suggesting a shift in consumer preferences or reduced discretionary spending.Record-High Gold Prices: Elevated gold prices likely impacted affordability, particularly for gold jewelry, potentially driving consumers to alternative investments or postponing purchases.Economic Slowdown: The economic slowdown in China, Hong Kong, and Macau created a challenging retail environment, affecting consumer confidence and spending.Declining Diamond Demand: The report specifically mentions a drop in diamond demand as a primary driver of the same-store sales decline. This may indicate a shift in consumer preference away from diamonds, or a reduction in high value purchases in general.

Focus on Cost Optimization: The store closures indicate a focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency.Potential Product Diversification: The decline in diamond demand may necessitate a strategic shift towards other product categories or price points.

E-commerce and Online Strategies: In a challenging physical retail environment, strengthening online sales channels becomes crucial.Market Adaptability: The company’s ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions will be critical for its future performance.

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Gold Prices On Track To Reach $4,900/oz By End 2026 :Goldman Sachs

Goldman’s $4,900/oz Forecast Assumes Central Bank Demand Averages 50 Tonnes Per Month In 2026 and 40 Tonnes Per Month In 2027

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Gold prices are on track to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by aggressive central bank purchases—led by undisclosed buying from China—and recovering exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

The bank maintained its bullish base-case target for bullion while warning that positioning in options markets could amplify price volatility in both directions. Central banks accumulated an estimated 44 tonnes of gold in July, well above the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs’ nowcast model. On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, central bank buying stood at 91 tonnes per month.

China was the primary driver, with Goldman estimating the People’s Bank of China bought 35 tonnes in July—roughly 75% more than official public disclosures indicated.

To account for unreported sovereign purchases, Goldman’s model tracks physical bullion flows through London’s over-the-counter (OTC) market into custodian vaults. The Bank of England’s central bank holdings alone rose by 63 tonnes in July, exceeding outflows from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Price Risks and Volatility

Goldman’s $4,900/oz forecast assumes central bank demand averages 50 tonnes per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, alongside steady Federal Reserve policy and a rebound in private ETF inflows.

However, analysts noted that elevated demand for gold call options—used by investors to hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks—creates mechanical upside and downside risks:

Bullish Case: Continued strong ETF inflows combined with existing call option positioning could force options dealers to buy underlying metal to hedge short exposure, pushing prices “well above” $4,900.

Bearish Case: If the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes, unwinding hedge positions and triggering ETF outflows, gold could drop to $4,440/oz by end-2026. Goldman noted that ongoing central bank buying would limit further downside.

Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to remain on hold through 2026 as inflation cools, removing a key interest rate headwind for the non-yielding asset.

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