National News
CEPA completes 3 years; powering India-UAE trade and economic ties
Bilateral gem and jewellery trade surged from US$ 20.88 billion in FY2022 to US$ 28.15 billion in FY2024, reflecting a robust 35% increase
The *Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)* between *India and the UAE*, formalised on 18th February 2022, has profoundly strengthened economic ties between the two nations. As we commemorate its third anniversary, it is evident that CEPA has significantly enhanced trade opportunities, particularly for India’s gem and jewellery industry.
Since CEPA’s implementation, trade between India and the UAE has witnessed remarkable growth. The bilateral gem and jewellery trade surged from US$ 20.88 billion in FY2022 to US$ 28.15 billion in FY2024, reflecting a robust 35% increase. India’s gem and jewellery exports to the UAE also soared by over 60%, from US$ 4.95 billion in FY2022 to US$ 8.04 billion in FY2024.
Notably, UAE’s share in India’s total exports rose from 13% in FY2022 to 25% in FY2024, overtaking Hong Kong as India’s second-largest export market. This underscores the transformative impact of CEPA on India’s trade dynamics.
One of the most significant benefits of CEPA has been the duty-free access for all gem and jewellery products, including gold, silver, and platinum jewellery, along with polished diamonds and gemstones.This development has motivated Indian exporters to increase their supply of various gem and jewellery items to the UAE, capitalising on the enhanced market access provided by the agreement.
This policy shift has led to substantial growth in key export categories:
Plain Gold Jewellery: Exports surged by 127.62%, reaching US$ 4,240 million in FY2024.
Studded Gold Jewellery: Increased by over 50%, from US$ 917 million in FY2022 to US$ 1,382 million in FY2024.
Worked Lab-Grown Diamonds: Witnessed a 58.16% growth, reaching US$ 172 million in FY2024.
Platinum Jewellery: Recorded a staggering 820.87% increase, reaching US$ 23 million.
Coloured Gemstones: Grew by 17.19% to US$ 9.34 million
*Kirit Bhansali*, Chairman, GJEPC, said, “The India-UAE CEPA has propelled our gem and jewellery exports to new heights, growing by over 60% from US$ 4.95 billion in FY2022 to US$ 8.04 billion in FY2024. The UAE now accounts for nearly a quarter of India’s total gem and jewellery exports, surpassing Hong Kong. The duty-free advantage has unlocked immense opportunities, particularly in plain gold jewellery, which saw a 127% surge. As we celebrate three years of CEPA, we remain committed to strengthening this vital partnership and exploring new avenues for growth.”
- Safe Heaven Dynamics – Gold rebounding above $5000 and silver above $80 reflects renewed safe-haven demand after a sharp correction. However, upside remains capped as fading expectations of near-term US rate cuts increase real yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding Gold and Silver. This creates a tug-of-war between geopolitical support and monetary headwinds, leading to volatile but range-bound price action.
- Geopolitical Developments – The prolonged US–Israel–Iran conflict, particularly threats to Iran’s oil infrastructure at Kharg Island, has kept crude prices elevated. Higher energy prices are feeding inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of aggressive monetary easing. While geopolitical risk supports gold and silver, persistent inflation fears indirectly pressure prices by strengthening the dollar and bond yields.
- Monetary Policy stance – The Federal Reserve and other major central banks maintaining a pause signals a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. This limits immediate upside in precious metals by keeping real interest rates elevated. However, any shift toward dovish guidance or delayed tightening could quickly revive bullish momentum, making policy signals the key trigger for the next directional move.
Technical Triggers
- Gold briefly broke the key $5000 (~Rs.157,000) support but failed to sustain lower levels, indicating near-term consolidation. However, short-term bias remains bearish with strong support seen around $4850 (~₹150,000).
- Silver also slipped below $80 (~Rs.255,000) but recovered quickly. A renewed break below $77 (~Rs.247,000) could trigger further profit-booking, dragging prices towards $70 (~Rs.230,000) in the near term.
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4850 / oz | $5250 / oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹158,500 / 10 gm | ₹165,000 / 10 gm |
| Silver | International | $77 / oz | $85 / oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹247,000 / kg | ₹268,000 / kg |
Source:AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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