Running from July 8 to 11, this year’s event stretched over four days—double the duration of 2024’s two-day sale—likely fueling the surge in revenue. According to data released by Adobe, online sales in the US during this period rose by an extraordinary 30% year on year and more than doubled the online revenue achieved during last year’s Black Friday, which stood at $10.8 billion.

The extended sale did more than just boost general shopping—it had a pronounced effect on seasonal demand, particularly for back-to-school items. This category witnessed an astounding 175% increase, as families seized the opportunity to stock up ahead of the upcoming academic year.

A notable trend during this Prime Day was the shift in consumer preferences toward higher-priced products. Shoppers, enticed by strong discounts, opted to “trade up” across multiple categories. The share of the most expensive appliances sold grew by 36%, furniture by 28%, and apparel—including jewelry and accessories—by 11%. Across all categories tracked by Adobe, the proportion of premium goods purchased increased by 20%, highlighting consumers’ willingness to invest in higher-ticket items when incentivized by substantial savings.

Gold emerged as the top-performing major asset class in the first half of 2025, posting a remarkable 26% gain in US dollar terms, according to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025. The surge was supported by a weaker US dollar, stable interest rates, and rising geopolitical tensions, which fuelled strong investment demand through ETFs, over-the-counter (OTC) markets, and global exchanges. Central banks also continued to add gold to their reserves, further boosting momentum.

Looking ahead, WGC’s Gold Valuation Framework outlines three potential scenarios for the remainder of the year:

• Base Case: Gold remains largely range-bound with a slight upside of 0–5%, supported by cautious rate cuts and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.
• Bull Case: A deteriorating economic environment—such as stagflation or recession risks—could drive gold up another 10–15% as investors increase allocations to safe-haven assets.
• Bear Case: If geopolitical tensions ease and global economic growth strengthens, gold prices could decline 12–17%, pressured by rising yields, a stronger US dollar, and reduced investor hedging.

The first half of 2025 also saw gold set 26 new all-time highs, with daily trading volumes hitting a record $329 billion. Global gold ETF holdings rose sharply by 41%, reaching $383 billion. However, WGC cautioned that higher gold prices may be starting to weigh on consumer demand and could lead to increased gold recycling.

The Council noted that while gold’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, its trajectory in the second half will depend on the complex interplay of global trade shifts, inflation developments, and central bank policy actions.

• To date, President Donald Trump has written to 25 nations’ leaders informing them of higher tariff rates that will go into force on August 1. One of the most recent measures is a 30% import tax on goods from important partners like the EU and Mexico.
• Trump also issued a warning that nations that raise their tariffs in retaliation risk even higher US charges. However, he said that until the new tariffs are put into effect, he is still amenable to more talks with trading partners.
• For hints about the Federal Reserve’s rate path, investors are now waiting for the US CPI report, which is due later today.

Technical Triggers  

• Gold continues to trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96250) and $3400 (~Rs 98500). 
• Silver has given a breakout of its range of $37.5 (~Rs 108,500) and $35.5 (~Rs 105,000). The next target is $39 (~Rs 113,000) and $40 (~Rs 115,000).

Support and Resistance