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Bullish on silver for the next 12 to 18 months: Emkay Wealth Management

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Emkay Wealth Management Ltd, the wealth management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services has released a press note on silver. Prices of silver in INR terms, have moved up by 15% in CY24 and YTD 2025 the prices are up by another 11%. A confluence of factors such as falling US interest rates, geopolitical situation and uncertainties surrounding Trump policies have been supportive of precious metals. Going ahead silver prices are expected to be well supported.

The medium term as well as long term factors indicate a positive outlook for silver. The US interest rates are expected to follow a downward trajectory for 2025, albeit at a gradual pace. Over the near to medium term interest rates are a critical determinant of demand for precious metals. The geopolitical situation is expected to remain fluid over the near term and the trade policies of Trump administration are expected to encourage safe haven demand.

The long term outlook of a commodity is determined by the demand-supply scenario. The supply of silver has been in deficit over the last four years. The supply for CY24 is estimated at 1,004 million ounces whereas demand is estimated at 1,219 million ounces. The majority of this demand (~60%) comes from industrial uses. Silver finds extensive applications in electronic devices, circuit boards, solar panels and electric vehicle batteries. As the adoption of EVs and green energy technologies continues to gain traction, the industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust.

Silver is showing signs of relatively higher momentum with the price trying to breach the crucial US$ 33 level. With a variety of industrial uses silver is expected to have a better run moving higher from the current level, to US$ 36.60, US$ 38.70, and US$ 39.30. Investing in silver funds with a 12 to 18 months’ time horizon is likely to be a worthy proposition.

The second technical factor of import is the gold-silver ratio. At current prices, the gold-silver ratio is hovering around the 90 mark, indicating a relative cheapness in silver prices. If the ratio is to go back to its long term range of 50 to 70, it translates into strengthening silver prices over the medium term.

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International News

Gold continues upward march;Bank of America forecasts  $5,000/oz for 2026

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Gold prices in India saw a modest rise on Wednesday today Oct 15, mirroring an uptick in international markets as renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of further US interest rate cuts bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.24k gold traded at Rs.1,28,360/10gm after gaining ₹10 in early trade, while silver prices increased by Rs.100 to Rs.1,89,100 per kilogram.

Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025.  Investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid trade tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations. U.S. December gold futures jumped 57% year-to-date.  Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, warning of possible near-term corrections.

Gold prices soared to an unprecedented $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the yellow metal. The rally comes as investors worldwide seek safety in hard assets amid a turbulent global economic backdrop marked by escalating trade tensions, slowing growth, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The sharp surge in bullion prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive monetary easing. As inflation pressures remain sticky and central banks pivot toward dovish policies, gold has reasserted its role as a hedge against both currency debasement and market volatility.

In futures trading, U.S. December gold contracts have skyrocketed nearly 57% so far this year, underscoring the strength of investor demand across both institutional and retail segments. Analysts note that central bank buying—particularly from emerging markets—has added further momentum to the rally, with several countries diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar.

Reflecting this bullish sentiment, Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing continued monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank accumulation. However, the bank also cautioned that short-term corrections are likely, given the rapid pace of the recent run-up and potential bouts of profit-taking.

Overall, gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, as investors navigate a world increasingly defined by economic fragmentation, shifting interest rate cycles, and persistent geopolitical risks.

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