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Bullish on silver for the next 12 to 18 months: Emkay Wealth Management

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Emkay Wealth Management Ltd, the wealth management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services has released a press note on silver. Prices of silver in INR terms, have moved up by 15% in CY24 and YTD 2025 the prices are up by another 11%. A confluence of factors such as falling US interest rates, geopolitical situation and uncertainties surrounding Trump policies have been supportive of precious metals. Going ahead silver prices are expected to be well supported.

The medium term as well as long term factors indicate a positive outlook for silver. The US interest rates are expected to follow a downward trajectory for 2025, albeit at a gradual pace. Over the near to medium term interest rates are a critical determinant of demand for precious metals. The geopolitical situation is expected to remain fluid over the near term and the trade policies of Trump administration are expected to encourage safe haven demand.

The long term outlook of a commodity is determined by the demand-supply scenario. The supply of silver has been in deficit over the last four years. The supply for CY24 is estimated at 1,004 million ounces whereas demand is estimated at 1,219 million ounces. The majority of this demand (~60%) comes from industrial uses. Silver finds extensive applications in electronic devices, circuit boards, solar panels and electric vehicle batteries. As the adoption of EVs and green energy technologies continues to gain traction, the industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust.

Silver is showing signs of relatively higher momentum with the price trying to breach the crucial US$ 33 level. With a variety of industrial uses silver is expected to have a better run moving higher from the current level, to US$ 36.60, US$ 38.70, and US$ 39.30. Investing in silver funds with a 12 to 18 months’ time horizon is likely to be a worthy proposition.

The second technical factor of import is the gold-silver ratio. At current prices, the gold-silver ratio is hovering around the 90 mark, indicating a relative cheapness in silver prices. If the ratio is to go back to its long term range of 50 to 70, it translates into strengthening silver prices over the medium term.

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International News

Indian Jewellery Exporters Breathe Easy temporarily as US Court Blocks Tariff Rise

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In a significant development for Indian gem and jewellery exporters, a US Federal court has temporarily halted President Donald Trump’s proposed ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, which were set to substantially increase duties on imported goods, including jewellery. The ruling has been welcomed by the industry, which had been preparing for tariff increases from 6% to as high as 26%.

The Court of International Trade in Manhattan deemed the executive orders issued on April 2 as “unlawful.” These orders aimed to implement a 10% baseline tariff on most US imports, with even steeper rates for countries with substantial trade surpluses — including China, the European Union, and initially, India. The 26% tariff targeting Indian gem and jewellery exports was scheduled to take effect on April 9 but had been postponed to July 9 due to ongoing legal challenges.

According to a newspaper report, the proposed tariff hike would have had a severe financial impact on exporters. Jewellery manufacturers operating in SEEPZ, which account for 64% of India’s $3.5 billion in annual jewellery shipments to the US, would have seen upfront duties per million-dollar consignment jump from $60,000 to $320,000. This would have further strained their cash flows at a time when global demand remains weak.

While the court’s decision does not address all of the industry’s challenges, it provides crucial temporary relief and highlights the need for consistent trade policies to support India’s standing in the global gem and jewellery market.

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International News

Ruling court nullifies Trump tariffs – AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold stabilizes in a range as a court decision overturns Trump’s tariffs, increasing risk appetite and depressing the greenback. After the U.S. Court of International Trade determined on Wednesday that Trump had overreached himself by using emergency powers to impose high tariffs on the majority of the nation’s trading partners, gold prices rose.
  • On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial update on the country’s first-quarter economic growth. According to the agency, the US GDP decreased by 0.2% over that time, which was less than the 0.4% decline that was anticipated and less than the 0.3% decline that the bureau had initially projected.
  • While acknowledging certain stagflation concerns, policymakers pointed out that the Committee may have to make tough trade-offs if inflation turns out to be more persistent and growth and employment prospects deteriorate.

Technical Triggers  

  • Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $3270 (~Rs 95000) and $3370 (~Rs 96400) in the near term. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 2-3% movement.
  • Silver prices are expected to trade in the range of $32.5(~Rs 96000) and $34(~Rs 99000) in the near term.

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International News

Swarovski Names Kolja Kiofsky as Chief Commercial Officer, Effective January 2026

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Swarovski has announced the promotion of Kolja Kiofsky to Chief Commercial Officer, effective January 2026. Currently serving as General Manager of North America, Kiofsky will take over from Michele Molon, who is set to depart in July 2025 for a new opportunity.

In his new role, Kiofsky will lead Swarovski’s global commercial operations, overseeing omni-channel strategy, global sales, commercial architecture, and real estate. He will relocate from New York to the company’s corporate headquarters in Männedorf, Switzerland, and report directly to CEO Alexis Nasard.

Kolja Kiofsky’s promotion to chief commercial officer marks an exciting new chapter for Swarovski. Kolja’s leadership and strategic vision have been pivotal in driving growth and transformation in North America,” said Nasard.

“At the same time, Swarovski extends its heartfelt gratitude to Michele Molon for his outstanding contributions and dedication to our company and brand. Michele leaves with a strong business and organizational legacy.”

Until Kiofsky assumes the role in January, Ilse Roeffen, Head of Emerging Markets and Businesses, will serve as interim Chief Commercial Officer.

Reacting to the announcement, Kiofsky said, “I’m incredibly honored and excited to step into the role of chief commercial officer after 15 amazing years with Swarovski. This company has been a huge part of my professional journey, and I’m proud to have the opportunity to contribute to its legacy of innovation, craftsmanship and excellence. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to Michele Molon who has been not only a brilliant leader but also a true partner and mentor throughout the years. I look forward to building on the strong foundation he laid and driving our commercial strategy into its next phase.”

The promotion comes as Swarovski reported a 6% increase in revenue in 2024, reaching €1.906 billion—signaling strong momentum for the heritage crystal brand.

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