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AUGMONT WEEKLY BLOG:Gold on beast mode as Liberation Day approaches

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Gold has continued its terrific run, on beast mode, hitting $3177 (Rs 91400) to set another milestone, as uncertainty about tariffs that would drive inflation and deteriorate economic development boosted safe-haven demand and maintained gold on track for its best quarter since 1986. The buying demand in gold continues unabated, with markets scrambling for shelter in the traditional store of wealth amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans on ‘Liberation Day’, April 2.

What is Liberation Day?

As per Wikipedia, “Liberation Day is a day, often a public holiday, that marks the liberation of a place, similar to an Independence Day. Liberation marks the date of either a revolution, as in Cuba, the fall of a dictatorship, as in Syria, or the end of the occupation by another state, as in the Netherlands, thereby differing from the original independence day or creation of statehood, while in Italy commemorates the victory of the Italian resistance movement against Nazi Germany and the Italian Social Republic, a puppet state of the Nazis and rump state of the fascists, the culmination of the liberation of Italy from German occupation and the Italian civil war in the latter phase of World War II”.

US Liberation Day on April 2

Donald Trump has threatened a “Liberation Day” with tariffs on countries having persistent trade deficits with the US. On Wednesday, April 2, the world will learn about Donald Trump’s new style of doing business with almost everyone. That is when the White House will unveil its tariff plan, which includes duty increases for all countries that trade products and services with the United States. Trump has not hinted at imposing a levy on gold, but the prospect of such a move has pushed prices to their current levels. Is gold taxed on imports? We find out on Wednesday. Until then, speculation is likely to continue in full swing.

Trump rattling the markets

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump shook markets last week by placing 25% tariffs on all non-American vehicles and light trucks ahead of the so-called reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect on April 2. On Sunday, Trump expressed his rage and frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening large tariffs on Russian energy and even bombings in Iran. He also stated that if he believes Moscow is impeding his efforts to end the Ukraine conflict, he will slap secondary tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Russian oil customers. Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, warning that he would suffer serious consequences if he pulled out of the important rare earth minerals deal. This further weighs on investors’ sentiment and contributes to the global flight to safety.

What next?

Bullion is up around 18% this year after climbing more than 27% in 2024, owing to a favorable monetary policy background, significant central bank buying, and demand for exchange-traded funds, among other things. This comes on top of continuing concerns over slowing US economic growth, which drives stagflation fears, pulling the US Dollar down and providing more support to gold.

The next resistance for gold is $3210(~Rs 92000) while Silver is stuck in the range of $33 to $35, prices need to sustain above its $35 resistance to head higher towards $38.

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National News

Jewellery Manufacturers Seek Tax Relief As Rising Gold Prices Inflate Inventory Valuations

Higher Gold Prices Sustained Turnover Value, But Jewellery Volumes Declined As Consumers Adjusted To Costlier Purchases.

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Jewellery manufacturers in Coimbatore have submitted a representation to the Government of India seeking a review of the existing methodology for valuation of gold inventory for income tax purposes, citing significant financial pressures arising from the sharp increase in gold prices.

According to industry representatives, the closing stock value of gold held by jewellery manufacturers and retailers is currently determined on the basis of the weighted average cost of inventory available at the end of the financial year. The sector has highlighted that gold prices witnessed an increase of approximately 65 per cent between March 2025 and March 2026, resulting in a substantial rise in the book value of inventory.

Industry stakeholders have stated that while the monetary value of sales turnover may have remained comparable to the previous year due to higher gold prices, the actual quantity of jewellery sold has declined as consumers adjust to elevated price levels. Consequently, manufacturers contend that the appreciation in inventory value is being reflected in taxable income despite the absence of corresponding realised sales and cash flows.

The industry has further represented that maintaining adequate gold inventory is essential for meeting consumer demand for a wide range of designs and product categories. As a result, manufacturers are unable to significantly reduce stock holdings without affecting business operations and market competitiveness.

Particular concern has been expressed by micro and small-scale jewellery manufacturers, who report increased working capital requirements and liquidity constraints arising from taxation linked to inventory appreciation. Industry associations have requested that the Government examine alternative valuation or taxation mechanisms that more accurately reflect realised business income and cash generation.

The representation seeks consideration of suitable policy measures to address the financial impact of inventory value appreciation on jewellery manufacturers while ensuring continued compliance with taxation requirements and supporting the sustainability of the sector. Hence, the government should take separate statement of the gold stock with the manufacturers every year. It should collect advance tax based on the sales.

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