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AUGMONT WEEKLY BLOG:Gold on beast mode as Liberation Day approaches

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Gold has continued its terrific run, on beast mode, hitting $3177 (Rs 91400) to set another milestone, as uncertainty about tariffs that would drive inflation and deteriorate economic development boosted safe-haven demand and maintained gold on track for its best quarter since 1986. The buying demand in gold continues unabated, with markets scrambling for shelter in the traditional store of wealth amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans on ‘Liberation Day’, April 2.

What is Liberation Day?

As per Wikipedia, “Liberation Day is a day, often a public holiday, that marks the liberation of a place, similar to an Independence Day. Liberation marks the date of either a revolution, as in Cuba, the fall of a dictatorship, as in Syria, or the end of the occupation by another state, as in the Netherlands, thereby differing from the original independence day or creation of statehood, while in Italy commemorates the victory of the Italian resistance movement against Nazi Germany and the Italian Social Republic, a puppet state of the Nazis and rump state of the fascists, the culmination of the liberation of Italy from German occupation and the Italian civil war in the latter phase of World War II”.

US Liberation Day on April 2

Donald Trump has threatened a “Liberation Day” with tariffs on countries having persistent trade deficits with the US. On Wednesday, April 2, the world will learn about Donald Trump’s new style of doing business with almost everyone. That is when the White House will unveil its tariff plan, which includes duty increases for all countries that trade products and services with the United States. Trump has not hinted at imposing a levy on gold, but the prospect of such a move has pushed prices to their current levels. Is gold taxed on imports? We find out on Wednesday. Until then, speculation is likely to continue in full swing.

Trump rattling the markets

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump shook markets last week by placing 25% tariffs on all non-American vehicles and light trucks ahead of the so-called reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect on April 2. On Sunday, Trump expressed his rage and frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening large tariffs on Russian energy and even bombings in Iran. He also stated that if he believes Moscow is impeding his efforts to end the Ukraine conflict, he will slap secondary tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Russian oil customers. Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, warning that he would suffer serious consequences if he pulled out of the important rare earth minerals deal. This further weighs on investors’ sentiment and contributes to the global flight to safety.

What next?

Bullion is up around 18% this year after climbing more than 27% in 2024, owing to a favorable monetary policy background, significant central bank buying, and demand for exchange-traded funds, among other things. This comes on top of continuing concerns over slowing US economic growth, which drives stagflation fears, pulling the US Dollar down and providing more support to gold.

The next resistance for gold is $3210(~Rs 92000) while Silver is stuck in the range of $33 to $35, prices need to sustain above its $35 resistance to head higher towards $38.

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Commerce Secretary Shri Rajesh Agrawal Unveils Visionary 2040 Roadmap For USD 100 Billion Gems & Jewellery Exports At Chintan Shivir

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  • Innovation, Design and Global Branding Key to Taking India’s Gems & Jewellery Exports to USD 100 Billion: Commerce Secretary
  • Value addition key to India’s USD 100 billion gems and jewellery export ambition; aligns with Prime Minister’s vision of Viksit Bharat
  • Government-industry dialogue identifies priority missions to double employment to 1 crore and increase India’s share in global merchandise exports to 14 per cent

Department of Commerce, in association with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), today convened the ‘Chintan Shivir – 2040 Roadmap for Gems & Jewellery’, a high-level dialogue aimed at developing a comprehensive strategy to help India achieve its ambition of USD 100 billion in gems and jewellery exports by 2040. The roadmap envisages an increase in exports from the current USD 28 billion recorded in 2025-26 to USD 100 billion by 2040. The sector is projected to contribute 1.2 per cent to India’s GDP and account for 14 per cent of the country’s total merchandise exports by 2040.

Speaking on the outcomes of the Chintan Shivir, Commerce Secretary, Government of India, Shri Rajesh Agrawal, said:

“The real catalyst for elevating India’s gems and jewellery sector from around USD 29 billion to USD 100 billion lies in building a comprehensive ecosystem driven by innovation, global design leadership and trust. He emphasised that India’s strength lies not in mining gold, silver or rough diamonds, but in its vast pool of skilled craftspeople, and said that greater wealth creation would come from design, innovation and global branding rather than basic manufacturing. He stressed the need for India to move beyond low-margin OEM work and bridge the gap between institutions of learning and industry by partnering with academic incubators to address real-world industry challenges.”

Shri Agrawal further emphasised the need to invest in human capital by upgrading skills, making careers in craftsmanship aspirational and leveraging advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and 3D printing to achieve product differentiation. He said that India’s rich history, culture and stories should be integrated into jewellery designs to strengthen the country’s soft power, while transparent and technology-driven trust networks should be established across domestic and export markets to respond to the evolving preferences of younger generations. He also called for developing greater risk appetite, addressing future-oriented industry challenges and mentoring young talent to build resilient supply chains and globally recognised Indian brands aligned with the vision of Viksit Bharat 2047.

The Chintan Shivir was organised under the guidance of Shri Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry. The central theme of the deliberations was value addition, with emphasis on exporting finished, design-led and branded jewellery. The discussions focused on strengthening India’s manufacturing capabilities, expanding market access and positioning ‘Crafted in India’ jewellery as a globally recognised proposition.

Director General, DGFT, Shri Lav Agarwal, said:

“India has already established a strong position in the global gems and jewellery trade and must now move decisively up the value chain. He emphasised the need to position India as a global brand and a destination for design and value-added jewellery. He also stressed the importance of a mission-mode approach, with Government and industry working together to create the right ecosystem, support new exporters and build the global value of Indian jewellery.”

Chairman, GJEPC, Shri Kirit Bhansali, said:

Kirit bhansali

“India’s gem and jewellery industry stands at an important inflexion point, with new FTAs, the 15-year tax exemption on rough diamond sales through Special Notified Zones and stronger support for MSMEs providing a strong policy foundation for growth. He emphasised that the next opportunity lies in accelerating value addition, expanding finished jewellery exports and leveraging India’s world-class craftsmanship and manufacturing capabilities.

He added that achieving the ambition of USD 100 billion in exports by 2040 would require Government and industry to work together to unlock new markets, scale MSMEs and build a distinct identity for Indian products.”

The deliberations during the day also focused on an addressable market of USD 128 billion across the midstream and downstream segments and highlighted opportunities for India to expand its presence in high-value segments. The discussions also centred around potential opportunities in areas such as the LGD+ ecosystem, as well as gold mining and refining.

The Chintan Shivir was structured around five priority missions, each taken up in dedicated breakout sessions chaired jointly by senior Government officials and industry leaders.

Mission 1 — Global Market Access was chaired by Director General, DGFT, Shri Lav Agarwal. The mission focused on leveraging India’s expanding FTA network and increasing India’s share in global jewellery consumption.

Mission 2 — MSME Scale-Up was chaired by Additional Development Commissioner, Ministry of MSME, Shri R.K. Rai, with CMD, ECGC, Shri Sristiraj Ambastha, as Co-Chair. The mission focused on enabling MSMEs, which form the backbone of the industry, to scale up through improved access to finance, technology and markets.

Mission 3 — Export-Import Fast Track was chaired by Director General, DGEP, Shri Shiv Kumar Sharma. The mission focused on creating simpler, faster and more predictable cross-border processes.

Mission 4 — Crafted by India focused on building global recognition and value for Indian jewellery through design, intellectual property and branding.

Mission 5 — Next-Generation Talent & Design focused on developing the skills, design capabilities and talent pipeline required to support a USD 100 billion gems and jewellery industry.

The Chintan Shivir concluded with a commitment to consolidate India’s leadership in traditional segments such as natural diamonds while aggressively capturing emerging value pools. The roadmap envisages doubling manufacturing output to approximately ₹15 lakh crore and expanding the sector’s overall economic value to nearly Rs 60 lakh crore. The deliberations positioned the gems and jewellery sector as a key engine of India’s Viksit Bharat vision, with the sector aspiring to evolve from an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) manufacturing base into a global ODM (Original Design Manufacturing) and branding powerhouse.

The Chintan Shivir brought together senior Government officials and industry leaders to deliberate on measures to strengthen India’s position in the global gems and jewellery value chain. The event was attended by Shri Lav Agarwal, Director General, DGFT; Shri Shiv Kumar Sharma, Director General, DGEP; Shri Dnyaneshwar Patil, Development Commissioner, SEEPZ; Shri Saket Kumar, Joint Secretary, Department of Commerce; Shri R.K. Mishra, Additional DGFT; Shri Sristiraj Ambastha, CMD, ECGC; Dr. Tariq Thomas, Director, Department of Commerce; Shri R.K. Rai, Additional Development Commissioner, Ministry of MSME; Dr. Shyam Kumar Barik, Deputy Controller, CGPDTM, DPIIT; and Shri Praveen Kumar, Senior Director, BIS. From GJEPC, Shri Kirit Bhansali, Chairman; Shri Shaunak Parikh, Vice Chairman; Shri Sabyasachi Ray, Executive Director, along with members of the Committee of Administration, also participated in the deliberations.

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