The US National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts strong consumer spending on gifts, including jewellery, for the 2025 Christmas season, projecting overall holiday retail sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. While the NRF doesn’t provide a specific forecast for jewellery, it notes that clothing and accessories (including jewellery) are highly desired gifts, and younger shoppers are particularly likely to purchase jewellery, often finding inspiration on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram. 

Key NRF holiday forecast details

• Overall sales: NRF forecasts total holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time.
• Consumer spending: The forecast is driven by strong underlying consumer fundamentals, with shoppers prioritizing spending on gifts for loved ones.
• Shopping habits: Shoppers are starting early to manage budgets, avoid crowds, and take advantage of promotions. Online shopping remains the top method, followed by grocery stores and department stores. 

Jewellery-specific insights

• High-demand gift: Clothing and accessories (including jewelry) are the second most-wished-for gifts, after gift cards.
• Younger shoppers: Consumers aged 18-24 are especially likely to purchase jewellery, and they find gift ideas on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram.