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US NRF forecasts total holiday sales to cross $1 trillion; Clothing , jewellery are  second most-wished-for gifts

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US NRF

The US National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts strong consumer spending on gifts, including jewellery, for the 2025 Christmas season, projecting overall holiday retail sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. While the NRF doesn’t provide a specific forecast for jewellery, it notes that clothing and accessories (including jewellery) are highly desired gifts, and younger shoppers are particularly likely to purchase jewellery, often finding inspiration on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram

Key NRF holiday forecast details

  • Overall sales: NRF forecasts total holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time.
  • Consumer spending: The forecast is driven by strong underlying consumer fundamentals, with shoppers prioritizing spending on gifts for loved ones.
  • Shopping habits: Shoppers are starting early to manage budgets, avoid crowds, and take advantage of promotions. Online shopping remains the top method, followed by grocery stores and department stores. 

Jewellery-specific insights

  • High-demand gift: Clothing and accessories (including jewelry) are the second most-wished-for gifts, after gift cards.
  • Younger shoppers: Consumers aged 18-24 are especially likely to purchase jewellery, and they find gift ideas on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram. 

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International News

MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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