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US NRF forecasts total holiday sales to cross $1 trillion; Clothing , jewellery are  second most-wished-for gifts

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US NRF

The US National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts strong consumer spending on gifts, including jewellery, for the 2025 Christmas season, projecting overall holiday retail sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. While the NRF doesn’t provide a specific forecast for jewellery, it notes that clothing and accessories (including jewellery) are highly desired gifts, and younger shoppers are particularly likely to purchase jewellery, often finding inspiration on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram

Key NRF holiday forecast details

  • Overall sales: NRF forecasts total holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time.
  • Consumer spending: The forecast is driven by strong underlying consumer fundamentals, with shoppers prioritizing spending on gifts for loved ones.
  • Shopping habits: Shoppers are starting early to manage budgets, avoid crowds, and take advantage of promotions. Online shopping remains the top method, followed by grocery stores and department stores. 

Jewellery-specific insights

  • High-demand gift: Clothing and accessories (including jewelry) are the second most-wished-for gifts, after gift cards.
  • Younger shoppers: Consumers aged 18-24 are especially likely to purchase jewellery, and they find gift ideas on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram. 

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GJEPC Auckland Visit Targets Growth In India-NZ Jewellery Trade

The Opportunity In New Zealand Is Significant Relative To The Current Level Of Jewellery Trade. India’s Gem and Jewellery Exports To New Zealand Rose 50.56% To US$25.46 Million In FY2025-26, From US$16.91 Million In FY2024-25.

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The GJEPC trade delegation’s Auckland programme has highlighted the scope for expanding India’s gem and jewellery exports to New Zealand as the two countries move towards implementing their recently concluded Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

The Auckland visit was part of GJEPC’s Australia and New Zealand trade delegation, held from 20-26 August 2026, with the delegation focused on connecting Indian manufacturers and exporters with buyers and industry stakeholders across the two markets.

The opportunity in New Zealand is significant relative to the current level of jewellery trade. India’s gem and jewellery exports to New Zealand rose 50.56% to US$25.46 million in FY2025-26, from US$16.91 million in FY2024-25.

The recently concluded India-New Zealand FTA is expected to create further opportunities for Indian exporters. New Zealand has committed to duty-free access for Indian exports across 100% of its tariff lines once the agreement enters into force.

On 26th August, Vijay Mangukiya, Convener – International Events, GJEPC and leader of the delegation, met Dr. Madan Mohan Sethi, Consul General of India in Auckland. Mangukiya has said the delegation was aimed at bringing Indian manufacturers and exporters closer to buyers and industry stakeholders in both Australia and New Zealand, with the objective of identifying new business opportunities and developing long-term partnerships.

The delegation’s Auckland market visits covered a broad cross-section of the local jewellery sector, including Michael Hill, Wallace Bishop, Hardy Brothers, Prouds, and Partridge Jewellers. The delegation also observed international luxury and contemporary jewellery brands including Van Cleef & Arpels, Roberto Coin, Messika and FOPE, reflecting the competitive environment in which Indian exporters would be seeking to establish or expand relationships.

India’s exports of individual jewellery categories to New Zealand also recorded strong growth in FY2025-26. Gold jewellery exports rose 84% to US$17.47 million, while silver jewellery exports doubled to US$0.91 million. Lab-grown diamond exports rose 2% to US$0.63 million, and imitation jewellery increased 13.16% to US$0.43 million. Cut and polished diamond exports were US$5.76 million.

The figures underline the growing contribution of finished jewellery to India’s New Zealand business. With the FTA expected to improve market access and the Auckland market showing demand across gold, diamonds, coloured stones, pearls and branded jewellery, GJEPC’s delegation is seeking to convert this existing growth into deeper commercial relationships.

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