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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains traction above $32.00 on trade war concerns

Rising concerns about trade tension and potential retaliatory measures by Trump support the silver price.

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Fed’s Powell emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates and there has been great progress on inflation. Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to $32.25 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Trade war concerns drive the safe-haven demand, supporting the white metal. Traders await the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are due later on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump on Monday imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States (US) with no exceptions or exemptions. The White House said late Wednesday that Trump could announce his reciprocal tariff plan on Thursday.

Trump recently said he planned to slap reciprocal tariffs on “every country” that imposes import duties on the United States. The concerns about the trade war tensions could further support the Silver price.

Data released on Wednesday showed that the US consumer prices rose more than economists expected in January, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates higher for longer as it battles to bring down price pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the latest inflation data showed that while the US central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do. The higher for longer Fed rate narrative could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.

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MSMEs in diamonds, textiles, chemicals to be most hit by US tariffs

The US tariff hike to 50% on Indian goods is set to hit MSMEs hard, especially in textiles, gems & jewellery, seafood, and chemicals. With MSMEs accounting for over 70% share in these sectors, the move will squeeze margins, reduce competitiveness, and impact key clusters such as Tirupur’s RMG hub and Surat’s diamond industry. While gems & jewellery exports worth ~$10 billion face the highest exposure, pharma remains exempt. Experts suggest diversifying exports towards the UK, EU, and other markets to offset the impact.

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The imposition of higher tariffs by the US will significantly impact micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which account for as much as ~45% of India’s total exports.

Currently, the US levies an ad valorem duty of 25% on Indian goods. However, it has imposed an additional 25% tariff that will take effect from August 27, bringing the total tariff on Indian products to a substantial 50%. The additional ad valorem, if implemented, will have meaningful impact on certain sectors and remains monitorable.

The textiles, gems and jewellery and seafood industries, which account for ~25% of India’s total exports to the US, are likely to be the most affected. MSMEs have more than 70% share in these sectors and will be hit hard. Another sector likely to face the heat is chemicals, where MSMEs have a 40% share.

Says Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, “Partial absorption of the increased product prices due to higher tariffs will put pressure on MSMEs, squeeze their already-slim margins and pose a material challenge to their competitiveness. For instance, those into readymade garments (RMG) are expected to lose ground in the US as the tariff increases to 61%, including 50% additional ad valorem duty, compared with peers in Bangladesh and Vietnam tariffed at 31%. The Tirupur cluster, which accounts for over 30% of India’s RMG exports, will be severely impacted as ~30% of its exports are to the US.”

Similarly, in the gems and jewellery sector, MSMEs in Surat, which dominates diamond exports with over 80% share, will feel the tariff shock. As such, diamonds account for over half of the country’s gems and jewellery exports, and the US is a major consumer of Indian diamonds, comprising nearly a third of exports.

To be sure, the tariff hikes come at a particularly challenging time for most of these sectors. For instance, RMG exports have recovered after declining 7% on-year in fiscal 2024 and logged 13% on-year growth in fiscal 2025, albeit on a low base. The gems and jewellery sector has seen exports decline 10%-a-year over the past two fiscals on compound annual growth rate basis.

Some sectors, however, remain unscathed for now. For instance, pharmaceutical products, which comprise 12% share in exports to the US, are currently exempt from tariffs.

Of the five sectors expected to see meaningful impact, gems and jewellery has the highest exposure to the US at ~$10 billion. While we expect export volumes to contract, the impact may not be fully reflected in revenue terms because of a likely runup in gold prices and sustained domestic demand. To further mitigate the impact, India can increase exports to other countries as well as leverage the benefits of the recently concluded trade deal with the UK and a potential deal with the European Union.

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BrandBuzz

Limelight Diamonds Strengthens Presence in Bengaluru with Second Store at HSR Layout

India’s largest lab grown diamond jewellery brand continues its expansion in Karnataka to meet growing demand for sustainable luxury

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Limelight Diamonds, India’s largest lab grown diamond jewellery brand, has launched its second store in Bengaluru, reinforcing its presence in Karnataka’s dynamic and style-driven market. Following the success of its first store in the Jayanagar city, the new outlet is located at HSR Layout, a prime lifestyle destination. The launch was led by Karam Chawla, Director, Limelight Diamonds, Tapesh Bhargava, Regional Partner, and the Limelight leadership team.

The new store features Limelight’s signature lab grown diamond jewellery collections from solitaire necklaces, bracelets, rings, and earrings to men’s jewellery, all crafted with advanced technology and designed to embody modern elegance with a strong commitment to sustainability. Its interiors bring together modest luxury, minimalism, and timeless design, offering customers an immersive and elevated shopping experience. 

To mark the occasion, Limelight announced an exclusive opening offer: 15% off on diamond value, 15% off on making charges, and a FREE gold coin on purchases above ₹1 lakh, valid until 31st August 2025.

“At Limelight, every new store is not just an expansion, but a step towards shaping the future of conscious diamond shopping in India,” said Pooja Sheth Madhavan, Founder & MD, Limelight Diamonds. “Karnataka has emerged as a key market for sustainable luxury, with Bengaluru leading this evolution. Our second store in the city, at HSR Layout, is designed to meet the growing demand from customers who value style, craftsmanship, and responsibility in equal measure.”

“Bengaluru’s evolving tastes and rising demand for sustainable luxury have been a key driver of our growth,” said Karam Chawla, Director, Limelight Diamonds. “With our new store in HSR Layout, we’re deepening our presence in the city, making it easier for customers in this part of Bengaluru to explore our signature solitaire collections, experience personalised customisation, and enjoy a transparent, trustworthy buying journey.”

Limelight’s offerings go beyond exquisite designs, with services like design customisation, lifetime buyback, 100% exchange guarantee, and value-protected jewellery insurance, ensuring transparency, trust, and long-term value with every purchase.

The brand continues to grow rapidly across India, now present in 45+ cities with 50+ exclusive brand outlets and 40+ shop-in-shops, spanning locations such as Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Varanasi, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Vadodara, Rajkot, and many more.

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BrandBuzz

Aishwarya Rajesh unveils Fedha By Challani outlet at OMR – Thoraipakkam, Chennai

Actress Aishwarya Rajesh inaugurated the new Fedha by Challani showroom at OMR–Thoraipakkam, Chennai, in the presence of Jayantilal Challani, Chairman, and Goutham Challani, Director. Offering an exquisite range of 925 silver jewellery—from statement chokers and jhumkas to men’s collections—the brand blends fine craftsmanship with modern sophistication, making silver the chic, versatile, and budget-friendly choice for today’s fashion-conscious buyers.

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Actress Aishwarya Rajesh unveiled Fedha By Challani showroom at OMR – Thoraipakkam, (Opp: AKDR Golf Village), Chennai. Representing Challani Group of Companies were Jayantilal Challani, Chairman and Goutham Challani, Director.

 Fedha by Challani offers 925 Silver Jewellery. It is where fine craftsmanship meets tradition and modern sophistication. At Fedha By Challani unlock the enchantment of a lifetime and embrace the allure of finest silver jewellery. The lavish edition of jewellery includes exquisite collections of nonchalance necklaces, jaw dropping jhumkas, chokers, rings, ear rings, bracelets, bangles, men’s collection and more. Each silver creation is meticulously crafted with flawless artistry, making every piece truly special. 

With a lustrous and modern shine, designer silver jewelry is quickly becoming the top choice for new-age fashion. From delicate rings to statement necklaces, it’s the perfect way to add a touch of effortless style to any outfit.Why the buzz? It’s chic, versatile, and, most importantly, budget-friendly. You can find a huge variety of stunning pieces without breaking the bank. Plus, silver is gentle on the skin, making it a comfortable and safe choice for everyday wear.

Whether you’re treating yourself or searching for the perfect gift, a piece of silver jewellery is a timeless treasure. It’s the perfect way to make any occasion—from a special anniversary to a simple “just because” moment—feel truly momentous. Fedha by Challani offers exquisite silver jewellery for every occasion!

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