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Rising US Inflation Fed Hike Expectations Put Pressure On Gold Prices

The Shift In Interest Rate Expectations Presents A Direct Headwind For Precious Metals. Because Physical Gold Is A Non-Yielding Asset That Does Not Generate Interest Income, Higher Prevailing Interest Rates Elevate The Opportunity Cost Of Holding Bullion Compared To Yield-Bearing Financial Instruments.

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Global gold and bullion markets are experiencing increased selling pressure as accelerating U.S. inflation data reinforces expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

​Recent macroeconomic reports indicate that U.S. inflation picked up in September, driven by higher consumer expenditure on energy, gasoline, and everyday goods. The persistent inflationary pressure has significantly reshaped market sentiment regarding monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 75% probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming December meeting. 

​The shift in interest rate expectations presents a direct headwind for precious metals. Because physical gold is a non-yielding asset that does not generate interest income, higher prevailing interest rates elevate the opportunity cost of holding bullion compared to yield-bearing financial instruments. As borrowing costs rise and fixed-income yields become more attractive, institutional and retail capital is increasingly diverted away from gold and toward interest-bearing assets. 

​Market analysts note that while geopolitical uncertainties and inflation traditionally drive safe-haven demand, the prospect of tighter monetary policy and sustained higher interest rates continues to cap short-term upside potential for precious metals.

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International News

US Jewellery Companies Continued To Shrink In The Third Quarter:JBT

During Q3, Business Closures Dropped To 116 Compared To 126 In The Prior Year’s Third Quarter, Driven By 88 General Operational Cessations, 28 Acquisitions Or Mergers, and Zero Bankruptcies.

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The number of active US jewelry companies continued to shrink in the third quarter, but at a slower pace than a year ago, according to the latest data from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT).The US jewelry industry continued its structural consolidation through Q3, though the pace of business closures showed signs of stabilizing compared to the previous year. Data from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT) reflects ongoing consolidation across retail, wholesale, and manufacturing, coupled with heightened credit volatility.

Key Data & Metrics

Nationwide, the active business footprint stands at 21,831 companies, reflecting a 1.4% year-over-year decline. During Q3, business closures dropped to 116 compared to 126 in the prior year’s third quarter, driven by 88 general operational cessations, 28 acquisitions or mergers, and zero bankruptcies. Meanwhile, new market entrants also slowed, with 67 new business openings recorded in Q3 down from 89 during the same period last year.

Sector-by-Sector Breakdown

SectorActive CountYoY ChangeImpact Summary
Retailers16,564-1.5%Makes up the majority of the sector; experienced the largest net store count reduction.
Manufacturers2,061-1.7%Steepest percentage decline among all segments.
Wholesalers3,206-0.9%Relatively stable, holding the mildest contraction rate.

Credit & Financial Health Trends

The JBT report highlights dynamic shifts in creditworthiness across US and Canadian businesses, signaling bifurcated financial health:

  • Credit Downgrades: Jumped sharply to 1,655 (up from 620 in Q3 of the prior year).
  • Credit Upgrades: Rose significantly to 1,480 (up from 551 in Q3 of the prior year).

While net business closures are tapering off, high numbers of simultaneous upgrades and downgrades point to a split market where resilient operators are strengthening their positions while vulnerable businesses face tighter financial pressures.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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