loader image
Connect with us

National News

Rising gold prices to shave a tenth off organised retailers’ volumes

Revenues to still grow in double digits; credit profiles supported by higher operating margins

Published

on

1,687 views

The continued rise in retail gold prices to an all-time high is expected to reduce the sales volume of organised gold jewellery retailers by 9-11% in fiscal 2026. However, with prices and realisations expected to be significantly higher on- year, revenues will still grow 13-15%.

This comes on the back of four straight years of more than 20% revenue growth, which has seen the industry grow 2.5 times since fiscal 2021. Volume, however, has remained subdued with consumers purchasing smaller quantities amid budget constraints due to higher prices.

An interplay of multiple factors is visible amid the continually rising gold prices. For one, as demand wanes, retailers are pushing sales through promotions and discounts amid increasing penetration in Tier 2 and 3 cities. The resultant increase in costs, however, will be more than covered by jewellery getting sold at prices higher than the purchase and making prices. Thus, operating profitability will rise 30-40 basis points (bps) on-year, driven by inventory gains.

The higher prices will also push up working capital borrowings for purchasing inventory for existing and planned stores. Nonetheless, leverage will remain under control and debt protection metrics healthy, supporting credit profiles.

A Crisil Ratings analysis of 60 gold jewellery retailers, which account for a third of the revenue of the organised jewellery sector, indicates as much.

In fiscal 2025, retailers took a 4-5% hit to volume as gold prices soared ~25% on-year (refer to Chart 1) amid geopolitical and economic concerns. As of mid-April 2025, gold prices are already ~20% higher than the average price in fiscal 2025. Thus, even if the prices move up only 4-5% from here, the average price will still be up 22-24% on-year for fiscal 2026.

Says Himank Sharma, Director, Crisil Ratings, “The recent jump in prices came just before the start of the festive and marriage seasons in the first half of April 2025, limiting the impact on demand thus far. However, as ticket sizes for buyers are likely to remain constant, caratage and grammage may reduce, as seen in the last four fiscals, impacting volumes. The demand, though lower, remains supported by duty cuts on gold imports announced last year.”

As such the implementation of Goods and Services Tax and Bureau of Indian Standards hallmark continue to push customers towards organised retailers, supporting revenue growth. Higher realisations will push another year of double- digit revenue growth for organised retailers, resulting in revenues of Rs.4.5-5.0 lakh crore for the industry.

Says Gaurav Arora, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings, “Despite the increasing debt, the capital structure of gold jewellery retailers will remain comfortable. Improved revenues and operating profitability will absorb the impact on debt protection metrics as well with median interest coverage seen healthy, over 6 times in fiscal 2026.”

The higher prices will have a two-way impact on retailers. One, with jewellery sold at prices higher than the purchase prices, resulting in an inventory gain of 20-30 bps, we expect the operating margin to break the declining trend of the last two fiscals and inch closer to the seven-year average of 7.8-8.0% in fiscal 2026 (refer to Chart 2). Two, the debt of gold jewellery retailers rated by Crisil Ratings will rise as the cost of inventory replenishment as well as new store inventory rises with higher prices, although higher revenue and profitability will provide cash flow towards store expansion.

That said, any sharp volatility in gold prices, changes in government regulations and import duties on gold, and consumer sentiment will bear watching.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

National News

Hand-Carriage Jewellery Exports from Mumbai Airport Launches on 1st May

Published

on

1,757 views

Mumbai International Airport is set to roll out hand-carriage jewellery export operations starting 1st May 2025, marking a major milestone for India’s gem and jewellery trade. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) formalised the procedure through Circular No. 09/2025-Customs dated 28th March 2025, enabling import/export via personal carriage.

A successful mock drill was conducted on 24th April 2025, with collaborative efforts from Bharat Diamond Bourse (BDB), BVC, Precious Cargo Customs Clearance Centre (PCCCC), Airport Customs, and GJEPC. The drill, overseen by Mr. Roopesh Sukumaran, Additional Commissioner of Customs, PCCCC, simulated a passenger export scenario with GJEPC Secretariat playing the role of the exporter.

GJEPC’s sustained advocacy has been instrumental in achieving this breakthrough. The upcoming advisory from DG Systems will pave the way for Mumbai Customs to issue the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for hand carry exports.

The initiative will benefit especially emerging exporters, offering them flexibility to personally carry jewellery to global markets. GJEPC has already set up a dedicated airport office to assist members with hand carry procedures.

Continue Reading

National News

India’s GJ sector to hit t $128 Billion by 2029: 1Lattice Report

Published

on

1,751 views

India’s gems and jewellery market is poised for robust growth, projected to reach $128 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 9.5%, according to 1Lattice’s latest report, Glimmers of Growth. This surge is driven by rising disposable incomes among the middle class, growing demand for certified and branded jewellery, and increased adoption of digital retail platforms. Gold continues to dominate the market, accounting for 86% of the overall share.

The report noted that government initiatives such as reductions in gold import duties and mandatory hallmarking have boosted consumer confidence and affordability. The rise of online retail, with virtual try-on tools and digital marketing strategies, is reshaping consumer engagement, especially among younger demographics.

Lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) have emerged as a key growth driver within the sector. The Indian LGD market is projected to reach $1.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of nearly 15%. Exports of LGDs have grown eightfold since FY21, and India now contributes around 15% of global LGD production, the report states. However, the lack of domestic HPHT machine fabrication presents an opportunity for investment to establish a full-fledged supply chain. LGDs are increasingly favoured for their affordability, ethical sourcing, and environmental benefits, aligning well with global ESG goals.

The report also maps major jewellery manufacturing clusters across India, including Surat, Mumbai, Jaipur, Thrissur, and Coimbatore, each specialising in distinct styles and techniques. Consumer preferences vary by region, age, gender, and spending behaviour, with a notable shift towards minimalistic, personalised, and sustainable jewellery.

Despite its promising outlook, the industry faces several challenges, including volatile gold prices, high labour costs, fragmented inventory systems, and the slow adoption of advanced retail technologies. Nonetheless, India’s position as a global leader in both natural and lab-grown diamond processing, supported by favourable policy frameworks and rising international demand, sets the stage for sustained growth, 1Lattice said.

To capitalise on this momentum, the report suggests that industry players should enhance transparency through certification, invest in technology, and tap into global trade opportunities while promoting jewellery as both a fashion statement and a long-term investment.

Continue Reading

National News

Candere Founder Rupesh Jain Launches Lab-Grown Diamond jewelry Brand Lucira; Taps into Booming Industry Potential

The company plans aggressive two-year roadmap for phased omnichannel expansion

Published

on

1,751 views

Rupesh Jain, the digital jewelry pioneer who built Candere into one of India’s most successful online fine jewelry platforms before its acquisition by Kalyan Jewellers, is returning to the spotlight with a bold new venture, Lucira. A modern lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lucira is built for today’s conscious, design-forward consumer and aims to transform the way people engage with fine jewelry.

Positioning itself as the unrivalled “Rings King,” Lucira focuses exclusively on celebrating proposals, weddings, anniversaries, and personal achievements with intentional design and ethical brilliance. Lucira is born out of a simple but powerful idea: that luxury can be meaningful, personal, and responsible. Inspired by the Latin word Lucent, meaning “to shine,” the brand represents purity, brilliance, and a commitment to illuminating life’s most cherished moments with jewelry that reflects values as much as beauty. Merging heritage craftsmanship with cutting-edge innovation, Lucira combines AI-led personalization, certified lab-grown diamonds, and a seamless digital-first experience to build trust and intimacy in an industry that has traditionally relied on opaqueness and excess.

The launch of Lucira comes at a time when lab-grown diamonds are reshaping the fine jewelry landscape, both in India and globally. These diamonds are physically, visually, and chemically identical to mined diamonds, offering the same brilliance and longevity—but at a significantly lower financial cost. Certified by IGI, GIA, SGL, and Hallmark, Lucira diamonds offer complete transparency and assurance of quality. Each piece is handcrafted by artisans who blend traditional techniques with contemporary elegance, creating jewelry that celebrates individuality and connection.

Currently available online with nationwide delivery, Lucira will soon debut its flagship experience stores in key metros, followed by an ambitious retail expansion across India and global markets. With a phased omnichannel growth strategy, the brand is poised to become India’s first global lab-grown diamond luxury house.

Rupesh Jain, Founder of Lucira said, “Our vision is to create a premium, design-led fine jewelry destination that begins online and extends into beautifully curated physical spaces. With AI-powered customization, virtual try-ons, and seamless e-commerce, we’re meeting customers where they are digitally native, value-conscious, and experience-driven. Our upcoming flagship stores will bring this vision to life, blending the ease of technology with the emotion of touch. As we expand across India and into global markets, our goal is simple: to make Lucira synonymous with modern luxury that’s personal, purposeful, and proudly Indian.”

Lucira is carving a niche in the fast-evolving bridal jewelry space, with a sharp focus on solitaires, bespoke engagement rings, eternity bands, and convertible pieces for everyday wear. The brand has introduced five exclusive signature cuts, each designed to maximize light, emotion, and brilliance. These aren’t just rings, they’re declarations of love, symbols of milestones, and heirlooms reimagined for a new generation.

Jain added, “Lucira is about elevating meaningful moments with timeless design and ethical brilliance. We’re not just shaping rings, we’re shaping what they represent in today’s world.

For Rupesh Jain, Lucira is more than a comeback, it’s a vision for the future of fine jewelry. One where innovation, ethics, and emotional resonance converge. India’s robust diamond manufacturing ecosystem and supportive government policies provide an ideal backdrop for Lucira’s ambitions. Jain believes India is uniquely positioned to become a major supplier and brand builder in the global LGD market, which has already seen strong demand in international markets as well.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending

CONTACT US

We would like to hear from you...

GET WHATSAPP NEWS ALERTS

error:
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x