Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold held near $4,550, at one-month lows, as rising energy costs fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further central bank tightening. The World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report notes that Middle East war uncertainty and unresolved Fed direction collectively support a structurally higher gold price outlook.  

• Geopolitical Developments – The US maintained its naval blockade on Iran, with President Trump conditioning its removal on a nuclear agreement. Tehran characterized the move as economic coercion aimed at exploiting internal divisions. The conflict drove Brent crude to a one-month high on supply disruption fears, while US Treasury yields edged upward in response.
• Macro-economic Signals – Prolonged Middle East hostilities and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz rattled global markets. Traders unwound rate-cut expectations for 2026 and began pricing in a potential hike by 2027. The Fed held policy unchanged as anticipated, though four dissenting officials highlighted deepening internal divisions over the path forward amid Iran-linked uncertainty. 

Technical Triggers

• Gold has met its $4,550 (~ Rs. 1,48,000) targets; next downside support sits at $4,450 (~ Rs. 1,45,000). 
• Silver broke below the $73 (~ Rs. 2,40,000) support level; a sustained breach targets $70 (~ Rs. 2,30,000), then $68 (~ Rs. 2,25,000)

Support and Resistance