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Precious Metals retreat as strong US data lifts the Dollar AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • As robust economic data supported higher interest rates, gold remained below $3800. While durable goods orders unexpectedly increased and initial jobless claims dropped to a two-month low, the US GDP was revised higher to represent a 3.8% rise in Q2. As a result, the opportunity cost to store bullion decreased, reducing forecasts of three rate reductions by the Fed this year.
  • In the meantime, further tariff threats strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven. US President Donald Trump announced intentions to apply duties starting on October 1 that would include 25% on heavy-duty vehicles, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on imported branded pharmaceuticals.
  • $10.5 billion was invested in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in September, bringing the total amount invested to about $50 billion so far this year.
  • On the other hand, China wants to establish itself as the guardian of sovereign gold reserves held by other countries, which might increase its power in the world bullion market.
  •  

Technical Triggers 

  • I expect a price retracement anytime soon. Silver must break below $44.50 to show a correction, while Gold must sustain below $3750, indicating further profit-booking to $3600.

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$3750/oz$3825/oz
Indian Gold₹112,200 / 10 gm₹114,200 / 10 gm
International Silver$44.5/oz$45.5/oz
Indian Silver₹133,700 / kg₹137,500 / kg
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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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