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Precious Metals retreat as strong US data lifts the Dollar AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • As robust economic data supported higher interest rates, gold remained below $3800. While durable goods orders unexpectedly increased and initial jobless claims dropped to a two-month low, the US GDP was revised higher to represent a 3.8% rise in Q2. As a result, the opportunity cost to store bullion decreased, reducing forecasts of three rate reductions by the Fed this year.
  • In the meantime, further tariff threats strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven. US President Donald Trump announced intentions to apply duties starting on October 1 that would include 25% on heavy-duty vehicles, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on imported branded pharmaceuticals.
  • $10.5 billion was invested in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in September, bringing the total amount invested to about $50 billion so far this year.
  • On the other hand, China wants to establish itself as the guardian of sovereign gold reserves held by other countries, which might increase its power in the world bullion market.
  •  

Technical Triggers 

  • I expect a price retracement anytime soon. Silver must break below $44.50 to show a correction, while Gold must sustain below $3750, indicating further profit-booking to $3600.

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$3750/oz$3825/oz
Indian Gold₹112,200 / 10 gm₹114,200 / 10 gm
International Silver$44.5/oz$45.5/oz
Indian Silver₹133,700 / kg₹137,500 / kg
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International News

MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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