According to Ventura, a leading full-service stock broking platform, Gold prices are expected to remain elevated in the second half of 2025. This is supported by macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and robust investment demand. Ventura expects Comex Gold to touch US$3,600 by year-end, after hitting a record high of US$3,534.10 on August 7, 2025, surpassing the previous peak of US$3,509.90 set in April 2025. 

Over the past 20 years, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a proven store of value and a hedge against inflation. Recent performance underscores its resilience, with average annual returns of 23% over the last three years compared to 11% for the Nifty 50. In volatile market conditions, gold’s negative correlation to equities has provided effective diversification, cushioning portfolio losses during sell-offs while participating in upswings.

India’s Gold ETF Market Witnesses Record Growth India’s gold ETF holdings rose 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025, with AUM surging 88% to Rs 64,777 crore. The number of investor accounts expanded 41% to 76.54 lakh, reflecting growing preference for digital gold investments. This shift from traditional jewelry ownership to tech-enabled investment channels is being driven by Gen Z investors, fractional ownership models, and the influence of social media and fintech innovations. 

NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura, said: “Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks. With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated US Fed rate cuts, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025. Our analysis indicates COMEX Gold could test the $3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India’s gold investment market.”

• Gold prices slightly declined below $3380 (Rs 99400) as investors’ attention was drawn to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium and US President Donald Trump’s meeting with European and Ukrainian leaders.
• In a White House meeting with President Zelensky, alongside European and NATO officials, President Trump voiced hope that the war in Ukraine would be over.
• After the negotiations, he claimed, the US will be “involved” in keeping the ceasefire and would call Russian President Putin.
• Amidst mounting anticipation for a September interest-rate decrease, markets will be closely observing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming statements at the Jackson Hole Symposium as well as the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting.

Technical Triggers

• Gold seems to continue its downward trajectory after sustaining below $3400. Next target is $3340 (Rs 98500), while $3445 (Rs 100,500) remains the resistance
• Silver prices are expected to consolidate in a range of $37.5(Rs 112,500) to $39(~Rs 115,000).

Gold prices edged lower to around $3,330 in early Asian trading on Monday, pressured by stronger-than-expected US economic data. The drop comes ahead of a key meeting later in the day between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which traders are watching closely for geopolitical signals.

Last week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, well above market expectations of 2.5% and the previous 2.4%. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading reduced bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, creating headwinds for the yellow metal.

Adding to the picture, US Retail Sales grew 0.5% month-on-month in July, matching forecasts but slightly below June’s upwardly revised 0.9%.

While strong economic data pressures gold, safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tensions may limit further downside in the near term.