Fine jewelry stands resilient amid wavering consumer sentiment, projecting gains through 2025 despite recession fears. U.S. sales surpassed $100 billion in 2024 and rose 5% in the first ten months of 2025.​

Post-pandemic surges persist, with independents driving 13% year-over-year growth in October 2025. National chains like Signet dominate, but smaller players posted monthly gains except February.​

A 50% tariff on Indian imports pressures margins, already thin in diamond processing, though retailers hold near 50% levels. Gold at $4,100/oz has not deterred luxury buyers viewing it as a value store.​

Store counts fell 13% since 2020 to 16,873 in Q2 2025, consolidating a resilient core. Holiday momentum signals sustained elevated sales into 2026, despite tariffs and lab-grown shifts.​

The industry may be generating healthy revenue, but fewer firms are carrying the load. For many insiders, this thinning of the competitive field is not necessarily negative; it leaves a more resilient core of operators capable of investing in security, staffing, and modern retail practices.

As jewelers head into the holiday season, the sector is closing 2025 on firmer footing than expected. Tariffs, gold prices and the ongoing reshaping of the diamond landscape—particularly the role of lab-grown stones—will dominate the conversation early in 2026. Yet overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic: sales appear sustainable at the elevated levels established over the past five years, even if fewer jewelers stand ready to benefit from them.