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Is gold heading for a correction? Augmont weekly blog

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Gold has seen a sharp runup, mostly due to worries about the possible economic effects of President Trump’s enacted tariff measures. A correction may be imminent, according to recent price behaviour following an impressive gain.


Extraordinary gold rally

Gold prices have been rising since December 18, which is a result of multiple concurrent worries. The execution of Trump’s tariff policies, inflation pressures, the expanding U.S. fiscal debt, and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Ukraine have all influenced market movement. Due to these factors, gold futures have risen by an astounding 17% this month, from about $2620 to $3065.

FED lowers growth forecasts

In last week’s FED meeting, the Fed did not change interest rates, but it did cut its GDP growth prediction from 2.1% to 1.7% and increase its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating a greater impact of tariffs. Whether this means higher or lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case depends on whether tariffs are expected to permanently raise inflation rather than just produce a one-time price hike. 

Rate cutting cycle to continue in 2025

The Bank of England, like the Fed, maintained interest rates constant while suggesting that it saw potential for future reduction. China released data for January and February (at the same time due to the Chinese New Year break), with positive surprises in retail and home sales but a persistent decrease in house prices. The government places a high premium on increasing consumer spending, and housing market stability is viewed as a necessary condition for this. 

Trump tariff worries continue.

Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs, which he has stated will go into force on April 2. This is in addition to the flat 25% duty on steel and aluminium that has been in place since February. US Senator Steve Daines will travel to China for trade discussions, the first high-level political encounter since President Donald Trump’s return, to restart stalled trade negotiations amid escalating tariff tensions.

Geopolitical Tensions persists

Both Russia and Ukraine increased aerial attacks on Thursday amid truce talks, with Ukraine sending attack drones to target Russia’s Engels airfield in the Saratov region, resulting in a fire and explosions. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Air Force said on Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are set to have discussions on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Monday. Israel began heavy bombings over Gaza on Tuesday, shattering a cease-fire with Hamas that had been in effect since late January. Furthermore, Hamas fired three missiles at Israel on Thursday, causing no casualties.

Gold after achieving the $3000 (~Rs 88000) milestone, and extending the rally to $3065 (Rs 89800), Gold is feeling the exhaustion now. It seems prices are topping out in the short term, we could see profit booking and price retracement at these levels. 

Technically, the correction over the past two days could be linked to profit-taking under somewhat overbought conditions on daily charts. However, the lack of follow-through selling should cause bearish traders to exercise care before concluding that the gold price has peaked in the near term.

Using Fibonacci retracement analysis from the recent low of $2845 to the high of $3065 several key support levels emerge. The first level to watch is the 23.6% retracement which occurs at $3012 (~Rs 87500). The next level is the 38.2% retracement at $2980 (~Rs 86600), followed by the 50% retracement at $2955 (~Rs 85850). 

For investors with a longer time horizon, such pullbacks may offer strategic chances as they are common in longer-term bull markets.

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Senco Gold & Diamonds unveils Ganesh Chaturthi New Designs & Offers to celebrate the festival of birthday of Lord Ganesha

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Mumbai, August 2025: Senco Gold & Diamonds is a leading pan-India jewellery retailer with a legacy of more than eighty-five years and the largest jewellery retail player in Eastern India based on number of showrooms with a whooping count of 186+, introduces Ganesh Chaturthi New Designs and offers to celebrate the festival of birthday of Lord Ganesha, the Lord of knowledge, wisdom, prosperity and good fortune. The festival is also known as Vinayak Chaturthi or Vinayak Chavithi.

The ten-day-long festival is a time of devotion and cultural splendour that brings people together.  It is believed that devotees who pray to Lord Ganesha on this auspicious day can fulfil their wishes and are bestowed with good luck and prosperity.

This Ganesh Chathurthi pays homage to the divine aura with gold and diamond jewellery pieces that will not only heighten your whole look but also symbolise prosperity, where customers can explore a wide range of new designs of Gold, Platinum & Diamond jewellery. The Ganesh Chaturthi collection celebrates tradition with a modern touch.

Commenting on this, Mr. Suvankar Sen (MD & CEO, Senco Gold & Diamonds) said, “Senco Gold & Diamonds is known for its exquisite jewellery collections, which are handcrafted with precision and devotion to detail. The brand’s jewellery is inspired by Indian culture and heritage, and it offers a wide variety of designs and styles to choose from, including traditional, modern, and contemporary. The Ganesh Chaturthi festival holds tremendous significance for devotees across Inia and to celebrate that we have introduced fantastic offers of Rs 100 off per gram on gold rate, upto 35% off on making charges in gold jewellery, upto 10% off on diamond value and upto 25% off on making charges of diamond jewellery, upto 10% off on making charges of silver items, and 0% deduction on old gold jewellery exchange. Special discounts in Sennes (Leather) of upto 15% on diamond value (lab-grown diamond jewellery), and upto 15% discount in the MRP of Leather Bags”.

Commenting on this Mrs. Joita Sen, (Director and Head of Marketing & Design, Senco Gold & Diamonds), said, “August is a month of festivities across India, with Rajasthan, Harryana and Bihar celebrating Teej and Maharashtra observing Ganesh Chaturthi. To celebrate the birthday of Lord Ganesha this year, we have launched new pendant designs crafted in gold and diamonds, each such pendant is designed to be lightweight, sleek, and timeless. The jewellery pieces embody reverence for Lord Ganesha while reflecting contemporary elegance, making them perfect symbols of devotion that fit seamlessly into today’s lifestyle”.

Senco Gold & Diamonds offers extensive jewellery collection, including gold, diamond, silver, platinum, as well as precious and semi-precious stones under brands such as Everlite, focused on lightweight jewellery; Gossip, the silver and costume jewellery brand; and D’Signia, which offers a premium jewellery retail shopping experience to customers. Senco Gold & Diamonds also has an Aham collection of jewellery catering to men and a Vivaha collection, which is a premium designer wedding jewellery range. The Ganesh Chaturthi Offers will be available from August 26-31st, 2025, at all Senco Gold & Diamonds showrooms and online channels

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Gold and Silver Prices Rise in Domestic Futures Market Amid Global Cues

Gold and silver prices edged higher in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning, supported by weakness in the US dollar and fresh global developments.

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At 9:10 AM, MCX Gold October 3 contracts were trading 0.27% higher at Rs.100,897 per 10 grams, while MCX Silver September 5 contracts gained 0.31% to reach Rs.1,16,314 per kg.

The uptick follows political and monetary shifts in the United States. US President Donald Trump’s decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage borrowing misconduct, coupled with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, weighed on the dollar and boosted safe-haven demand.

In his August 22 address, Powell signaled a pivot from inflation concerns to prioritizing the US job market, reinforcing expectations of a potential rate cut in September. Gold responded with a strong rebound, closing 1% higher at $3,372 on Friday and recording a weekly gain of 1.1% as of August 22.

Market analysts suggest that bullion may continue to find support in the near term as investors track global monetary policy signals and geopolitical shifts.

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Shraddha Kapoor-Backed Palmonas Raises ₹55 Cr in Series A to Fuel Nationwide Retail Expansion

Pune-based demi-fine jewellery brand Palmonas has raised ₹55 crore in its Series A funding round, led by Vertex Ventures Southeast Asia and India, a subsidiary of Temasek.

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This marks the company’s first institutional fundraise, aimed primarily at scaling its offline footprint across India.

With 25 stores already operating in metro and tier-2 cities, Palmonas now plans to launch 100 company-owned outlets, with a focus on key markets such as Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune. The expansion strategy will also explore emerging cities like Aurangabad and Bhagalpur, with 60% of the stores located in malls, 40% on high streets, and a few in airports.

The new capital will also support team expansion and product innovation, particularly in the nine-carat gold segment paired with lab-grown diamonds—a fast-growing category amid surging gold prices and new hallmarking norms.

Palmonas has shown steady financial growth, with revenue increasing from ₹3.83 crore in FY23 to ₹5.38 crore in FY24, though it reported a net loss of ₹1.24 crore.

Prior to this round, Palmonas had raised about ₹7 crore from angel investors and its appearance on Shark Tank India, where it secured investment from Namita Thapar (Emcure Pharmaceuticals) and Ritesh Agarwal (OYO).

The funding comes at a time of increased investor interest in jewellery startups, particularly those innovating in lab-grown and demi-fine segments. Competitors like Aukera, True Diamond, Amama, and Coluxe have also raised capital recently. Meanwhile, larger players such as GIVA, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart, and BlueStone are tapping into the public and private markets to scale operations.

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