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Is gold heading for a correction? Augmont weekly blog

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Gold has seen a sharp runup, mostly due to worries about the possible economic effects of President Trump’s enacted tariff measures. A correction may be imminent, according to recent price behaviour following an impressive gain.


Extraordinary gold rally

Gold prices have been rising since December 18, which is a result of multiple concurrent worries. The execution of Trump’s tariff policies, inflation pressures, the expanding U.S. fiscal debt, and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Ukraine have all influenced market movement. Due to these factors, gold futures have risen by an astounding 17% this month, from about $2620 to $3065.

FED lowers growth forecasts

In last week’s FED meeting, the Fed did not change interest rates, but it did cut its GDP growth prediction from 2.1% to 1.7% and increase its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating a greater impact of tariffs. Whether this means higher or lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case depends on whether tariffs are expected to permanently raise inflation rather than just produce a one-time price hike. 

Rate cutting cycle to continue in 2025

The Bank of England, like the Fed, maintained interest rates constant while suggesting that it saw potential for future reduction. China released data for January and February (at the same time due to the Chinese New Year break), with positive surprises in retail and home sales but a persistent decrease in house prices. The government places a high premium on increasing consumer spending, and housing market stability is viewed as a necessary condition for this. 

Trump tariff worries continue.

Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs, which he has stated will go into force on April 2. This is in addition to the flat 25% duty on steel and aluminium that has been in place since February. US Senator Steve Daines will travel to China for trade discussions, the first high-level political encounter since President Donald Trump’s return, to restart stalled trade negotiations amid escalating tariff tensions.

Geopolitical Tensions persists

Both Russia and Ukraine increased aerial attacks on Thursday amid truce talks, with Ukraine sending attack drones to target Russia’s Engels airfield in the Saratov region, resulting in a fire and explosions. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Air Force said on Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are set to have discussions on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Monday. Israel began heavy bombings over Gaza on Tuesday, shattering a cease-fire with Hamas that had been in effect since late January. Furthermore, Hamas fired three missiles at Israel on Thursday, causing no casualties.

Gold after achieving the $3000 (~Rs 88000) milestone, and extending the rally to $3065 (Rs 89800), Gold is feeling the exhaustion now. It seems prices are topping out in the short term, we could see profit booking and price retracement at these levels. 

Technically, the correction over the past two days could be linked to profit-taking under somewhat overbought conditions on daily charts. However, the lack of follow-through selling should cause bearish traders to exercise care before concluding that the gold price has peaked in the near term.

Using Fibonacci retracement analysis from the recent low of $2845 to the high of $3065 several key support levels emerge. The first level to watch is the 23.6% retracement which occurs at $3012 (~Rs 87500). The next level is the 38.2% retracement at $2980 (~Rs 86600), followed by the 50% retracement at $2955 (~Rs 85850). 

For investors with a longer time horizon, such pullbacks may offer strategic chances as they are common in longer-term bull markets.

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Joyalukkas Foundation Hands Over 50 ‘Joy Homes’ to Underprivileged Families in Karnataka

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Joyalukkas Foundation handed over 50 newly constructed ‘Joy Homes’ to underprivileged families across Karnataka as a step toward improving the living conditions of marginalised communities. The initiative, part of the Foundation’s ongoing “Joy Homes” project, was formally marked by a key handover ceremony held at the NIMHANS Convention Centre in Bengaluru.

The ceremony was presided over by Dr. Joy Alukkas, Chairman of the Joyalukkas Group, and attended by prominent dignitaries including Mohammed Rihan Nawab (CEO, Emmar Properties), Mohammed Rizwan Nawab (Vice Chairman, KSRTC), Chetan Kumar Mehta (President, Jeweller’s Association, Bengaluru), and Thomas Mathew (Executive Director, Joyalukkas).

The Joy Homes initiative is rooted in the Foundation’s broader commitment to addressing basic human needs through sustainable and inclusive development efforts. Each of the homes, measuring 500 square feet and built at a cost of ₹7.5 lakh, aims to offer not just shelter, but also dignity, safety, and stability to those often left at the margins of society. Beneficiaries of the scheme include families affected by poverty, natural disasters, chronic illness (such as Endosulfan exposure), and disability.

With the latest addition in Karnataka, the total number of homes provided under the Joy Homes initiative has risen to 414 across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. In a further expansion of the programme, the Foundation also announced a new project to build 50 additional homes in Telangana, extending the reach of its housing efforts across South India. Since its inception in 2009, the Joyalukkas Foundation has focused its Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities on areas such as healthcare access, education, elder care, and women’s empowerment, prioritising interventions that address systemic gaps in underserved communities. Its healthcare initiatives include the monthly distribution of over 1,000 dialysis kits in Kerala, the donation of dialysis machines, the renovation of hospital wards, and ongoing support for palliative care and blood donation drives.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Foundation supported the education of over 300 children who lost a parent through scholarships under its “Joy of Hope” programme. In Thrissur, Kerala, the Foundation also operates a senior citizen care facility that includes a dialysis centre, palliative care unit, and other specialized services. Additionally, through vocational training in beautician skills and tailoring, over 200 women have been equipped with the means to achieve financial independence. The Joy Homes project reflects the Foundation’s belief that stable housing is a fundamental step toward social upliftment. By addressing a core need, it enables vulnerable families to focus on rebuilding their lives, accessing opportunities, and securing a better future.

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AVR Swarna Mahal Jewellers Expands Legacy with New Showroom in Perambalur

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Marking a new chapter in its illustrious journey, AVR Swarna Mahal Jewellers has officially inaugurated its brand-new showroom in Perambalur, bringing its legacy of trust, craftsmanship, and tradition to a fresh audience. The grand opening on May 25, 2025, was celebrated with exclusive offers and warm local reception, adding another gleaming milestone to the brand’s growing footprint.

With this launch, AVR Swarna Mahal now proudly operates 20 retail outlets across Tamil Nadu and neighbouring regions, further solidifying its presence as one of South India’s most beloved jewellery destinations.

The Perambalur showroom promises a wide array of exquisitely crafted pieces across categories — gold, diamond, silver, and Vendi silver jewellery — designed to meet both traditional and contemporary tastes. To commemorate the launch, the store is offering special inaugural discounts:

AVR Shreesmaran, Director of AVR Swarna Mahal stated, “With every new store, we bring not just jewellery, but a heritage of trust and fine artistry. Perambalur is a significant addition to our family, and we look forward to becoming a part of the lives and celebrations of the people here.”

  • AVR Swarna Mahal has built a reputation over decades for its exceptional quality, customer service, and commitment to purity. The new Perambalur showroom carries forward this tradition, offering a seamless shopping experience in an elegant, welcoming environment.

Customers can now explore a world where every sparkle tells a story, and where tradition meets timeless beauty — right in the heart of Perambalur. and both precious and semi-precious stones.

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Senco Gold Shares Rise as Q4 Profit Nearly Doubles to ₹94 Cr; EBITDA Margin Improves to 9.2%

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Shares of Senco Gold rose 2.11% to ₹388.85 after the company posted a sharp rise in earnings for the fourth quarter ended March 2025. The company’s net profit nearly doubled — rising 94.1% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹94 crore — driven by strong revenue growth and improved operational performance. Revenue from operations for Q4 stood at ₹1,377.71 crore, up 21.1% compared to Q4 FY24.

Profit before tax (PBT) increased by 62.4% YoY to ₹85.08 crore, while EBITDA rose 44.8% to ₹127.01 crore. The EBITDA margin improved by 150 basis points to 9.2%, reflecting better cost efficiency and higher value sales.

Operating expenses for the quarter grew by 19.2% to ₹1,250.69 crore. The cost of materials consumed increased 21.6% to ₹1,146.46 crore, and employee benefit expenses rose 27.1% to ₹35.65 crore.

For the full fiscal year FY25, Senco reported a 20.7% increase in revenue to ₹6,328.07 crore. However, net profit declined by 12% to ₹159.31 crore due to a one-time impact from a customs duty cut in July 2024. Adjusted PAT for FY25 stood at ₹207.9 crore, a YoY growth of 10.1%.

Suvankar Sen, Managing Director & CEO, highlighted the company’s robust Q4 performance, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) at 18% and a 21% volume growth in diamond jewellery, which translated to a 38% rise in value terms. Company-owned outlets, contributing 64% of retail revenues, posted a 21% growth, while the franchise segment, contributing 36%, grew by 28% YoY.

The company opened five new showrooms in Q4, across COCO, FOCO, and FOFO models. Senco also saw a surge in old gold exchanges, which made up 40% of total sales, with 61% of that coming from new, non-Senco customers.

Senco Gold, a prominent national jewellery retailer, offers a wide range of products including gold, diamond, Polki, Platinum, Kundan, Jadau, silver, and both precious and semi-precious stones.

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