International News
Investors shift from US government bonds to Gold: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- As investors looked for safe-haven assets, shifting from government bonds to gold in response to rising fears about the US fiscal outlook, gold climbed toward $3340 to reach a nearly two-week high.
- Following the introduction of a proposed US federal budget that could increase the already significant deficit, risk sentiment declined. This was made worse by Moody’s recent reduction of the US credit rating because of growing debt levels and the Fed’s cautious economic outlook.
- With the continuous turmoil in the Middle East and President Trump’s apparent retreat from mediating the Russia-Ukraine issue, geopolitical tensions further increased the allure of gold.
- In the meantime, Chinese customs statistics revealed that robust demand and the central bank’s issuance of additional import quotas amid the height of US-China trade tensions caused gold imports to soar to an 11-month high of 127.5 metric tonnes in April, up 73% from March.
Technical Triggers
- As gold has changed its momentum and moved higher above $3300 (~Rs 95500), the rally can continue towards $3380 (~Rs 97500), but prices are expected not to sustain beyond that.
- Silver prices are gaining momentum and close to their resistance level of $34(~Rs 99500). We could see a reversal if prices don’t sustain. If prices sustain above these levels, the next target would be $35(~Rs 102,000).
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3200/oz | $3380/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹92,000/10 gm | ₹97,500/10 gm |
| International Silver | $32/oz | $34/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹94,000/kg | ₹99,500/kg |
International News
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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