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Gold Jewellery Value Set to Rise 12–14% in FY26 Despite Volume Decline- ICRA

Driven by rising gold prices and retail expansion, India’s gold jewellery market will grow in value even as consumption volumes fall for a second consecutive year

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India’s domestic gold jewellery consumption is expected to grow by 12–14% in value terms in FY2026, according to a new report by ICRA, even as consumption volumes are projected to decline for a second year in a row. This value growth is largely attributed to continued gold price appreciation, expanded retail presence, and increasing market consolidation in favour of organised players.

“This will be supported by continued gold price appreciation, planned retail expansion, and market share gains from the unorganised segment. A higher number of auspicious days in the fiscal is also expected to lend some support to demand, despite elevated prices and declining volumes,” said Jitin Makkar, Senior Vice President and Group Head, ICRA.

In FY2025, gold jewellery consumption by value jumped 28%, spurred by a 33% surge in gold prices. A similar trend is anticipated in FY2026, with gold prices already trading about 20% higher than the FY2025 average. However, consumption volumes are expected to fall by 9–10% in FY2026, following a 7% decline in FY2025.

The report also highlights a notable shift in investor behaviour, with demand for gold bars and coins increasing 17% and 25% in FY2024 and FY2025, respectively. This reflects a growing preference for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global geopolitical and economic uncertainty. ICRA expects this demand to rise by another 10% in FY2026, with bars and coins projected to account for 35% of total gold demand.

Jewellery retailers may also see a modest improvement in profitability. Operating margins are forecast to expand by 30 basis points to 7.2% in FY2026. However, net margin growth is likely to remain limited, constrained by higher financing costs linked to elevated Gold Metal Loan (GML) rates and increased working capital needs due to high gold prices and planned store expansions.

“Despite a projected 30 bps expansion in operating margins in FY2026, net margin expansion will remain limited within 10 basis points due to higher financing costs stemming from elevated GML rates and increased working capital borrowings driven by high gold prices and planned store additions,” Jitin Makkar added.

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National News

Gold Exchange Schemes See Surge In Demand

Nearly 25% Of All Jewelry Buyers Now Opt For Exchange Programs Instead Of Outright Cash Purchases

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In 2026, India’s retail gold sector is witnessing a significant paradigm shift. Driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and strategic government appeals, gold exchange schemes have emerged as a dominant trend. Nearly 25% of all jewelry buyers now opt for exchange programs instead of outright cash purchases, marking a substantial increase from previous years.

Key Drivers of the Exchange Trend

1. Record-High Gold Prices

The primary economic catalyst for this shift is the unprecedented surge in gold prices. As fresh gold becomes increasingly expensive, consumers are unlocking the value stored in their existing assets rather than stretching their liquid capital to make new purchases.

2. Government Advocacy and Import Reduction

The trend is heavily backed by national policy interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has actively appealed to the public to utilize old jewelry for new purchases rather than buying fresh gold. The strategic goal behind this initiative is to curb India’s massive gold imports, thereby strengthening the current account deficit and stabilizing the national economy.

3. Aggressive Jeweler Incentives

Jewelers have rapidly adapted to consumer demand and government alignment by lowering the barriers to entry for exchanges.

 Two major policy shifts are driving this retail adoption:

  • Zero-Deduction Exchange Schemes: Traditional penalties and melting losses that previously deterred consumers from exchanging gold are being eliminated.
  • Relaxed Documentation & Purity Standards: Retailers are now accepting old gold sourced from any jeweler starting at a purity level as low as 9KT, even without original purchase bills.

Market Implications

The 25% Threshold: The fact that a quarter of all jewelry buyers are now choosing exchange programs signifies that gold recycling is no longer a niche or distress-driven activity; it has entered the mainstream consumer behavior matrix.

  • For Consumers: This shift provides a highly liquid, cost-effective way to upgrade designs and maintain asset value without facing heavy financial hits or bureaucratic hurdles (like tracking down decades-old receipts).
  • For the Economy: By circulating existing domestic gold back into the supply chain, India reduces its reliance on international bullion markets, directly answering the government’s call for macroeconomic resilience.
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