International News
Gold climbs $100 from its intraday low:AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Gold prices bounced up about $100 (~Rs 1500) from their intraday lows as investors appeared to be shifting back to safe-haven assets due to a slowdown in the pace of discussions between Russia and Ukraine and less-than-expected US data.
- As consumers reduced their spending on vehicles, sporting equipment, and other imported goods due to worries about rising prices brought on by tariffs, US retail sales barely increased in April.
- Concurrently, the PPI prices unexpectedly dropped due to a 1.6% decline in wholesalers’ and retailers’ margins, suggesting that businesses may be mitigating some of the effects of higher tariffs.
- Moreover, Trump claimed that no progress on Ukraine will happen unless he meets with Putin, while the Ukrainian president argued that Moscow’s low-ranking diplomats dispatched to Istanbul for peace talks indicate a lack of genuine determination.
Technical Triggers
- As Gold prices have broken the Double-top neckline support of $3200, more downside is expected up to $3000-50 (~Rs 87000 – 88000) in the short term.
- Silver prices are expected to get momentum now, as the tariff war has de-escalated. We are likely to see prices touching $34(~Rs 99000) and $35(~Rs 102,0000) soon in the coming days.
| Metal | Region | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $3050/oz | $3260/oz |
| Gold | India | ₹92,000/10 gm | ₹94,000/10 gm |
| Silver | International | $31.5/oz | $33.5/oz |
| Silver | India | ₹93,500/kg | ₹97,500/kg |
International News
Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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