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Gold and silver surge to  record highs driven by growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts

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Gold and silver prices soared to new all-time highs in India on Monday, driven by growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in the coming months, which could weaken the dollar. Heightened geopolitical tensions and tariff-led trade concerns further fueled the rally, while robust industrial demand lent additional support to silver, analysts said.

In global markets, gold surged past the $3,750/oz mark, setting a fresh record and edging closer to $3,800, while silver spiked above $44/oz, its highest level in 14 years.

Mirroring the global uptrend and compounded by a weaker rupee, domestic futures hit record levels on MCX: October gold futures neared Rs.1.12 lakh per 10 gm, and December silver futures touched Rs.1.33 lakh per kg, marking historic peaks for both precious metals.

Traders said the momentum is likely to continue in the near term, with festive demand in India potentially adding a further boost to gold consumption. Silver, already buoyed by industrial demand, could see continued investor interest as both a commodity and a hedge.

The US Fed’s 25 basis points rate cut and prospects of additional easing by year-end have boosted sentiment for gold, while a subdued dollar index and weaker rupee added momentum. Persistent central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, and safe-haven buying have further fuelled the precious metals’ strength,

Industry analysts remain cautiously optimistic, highlighting that while global uncertainties and dovish U.S. monetary expectations are currently propelling prices, sustained volatility cannot be ruled out. Investors are advised to track the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meetings, global inflation data, and geopolitical developments, all of which will be key in determining the trajectory of precious metals.

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International News

AGTA appeals US Government to Scrap 10% Import Tariff on Gemstones

Trade body seeks exemption for coloured gemstones under new temporary tariff regime, with potential implications for diamonds.

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The American Gem Trade Association (AGTA) has formally appealed to the US government to remove the newly imposed 10% global import tariff on gemstones, and potentially diamonds, warning of its impact on the trade.

The tariff was announced on February 20 after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, the administration introduced a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The measure will remain in effect for 150 days unless Congress votes to extend it, though further tariff mechanisms have not been ruled out.

AGTA has submitted a formal request to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), urging that precious and semiprecious coloured gemstones be added to the exception list under Annex I or Annex II. The association argued that these stones are not mined domestically in the US and therefore should qualify for exemption.

Previously, AGTA’s lobbying efforts contributed to diamonds and gemstones being included in Annex III — a list of products eligible for potential exemption from duties for “aligned” countries. This had placed Indian diamonds and gemstones on track for relief following a prospective US-India trade agreement. However, it remains unclear whether Annex III provisions apply under the new tariff framework that recently took effect.

If the across-the-board exemption request is denied, AGTA has asked the USTR to confirm whether Annex III remains a viable pathway for country-specific tariff relief on coloured gemstones.

While the current petition focuses on coloured gemstones, AGTA noted that trade experts believe any exemption granted in this category could effectively extend to diamonds, as seen in past trade agreements such as the US–European Union deal.

“We will continue to work tirelessly toward eliminating tariffs on gemstone imports into the US. We remain fully committed to this effort — giving up is not an option,” said AGTA President Bruce Bridges and CEO John Ford.

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