The global diamond industry continues to navigate a multifaceted landscape as the second quarter approaches. While geopolitical shifts and evolving supply chains have introduced new pressures, the market remains defined by a clear divergence in demand—favoring high-carat rarity and strategic retail consolidation.

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East during February 2026 has reverberated through major trading hubs. Iranian missile strikes created temporary disruptions in Israel and Dubai, traditionally the heartbeat of the rough diamond trade. In response, rough tender houses have demonstrated remarkable agility, relocating sales to maintain liquidity.

Despite these logistical hurdles, the industry’s infrastructure remains resilient, though Indian manufacturers continue to monitor access to rough supply closely as tender locations shift.

The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for March underscores a market divided by size and scarcity. While the “big stone” luxury segment remains robust, smaller goods are facing a period of price correction.

The March performance metrics reveal a period of strategic recalibration across the diamond market, characterized by a clear correlation between stone size and price volatility. Smaller categories faced the most pronounced headwinds, with 0.50-carat stones undergoing a significant 3.5% adjustment and 0.30-carat goods softening by 1.1%. Mid-range 1-carat diamonds continued a gradual correction with a 1.7% decline, reflecting a broader trend of cautious buying in the commercial segment.

In contrast, the high-end 3-carat category demonstrated remarkable resilience, slipping only 0.5% to remain relatively stable—a testament to the enduring appeal and scarcity of larger, investment-grade stones amidst shifting global dynamics.

Conversely, 2-carat stones and above are witnessing a supply-side squeeze. Long fancy shapes are experiencing heightened desirability, and New York wholesalers report a steady flow of retail orders for high-end, investment-grade diamonds.

At the source, De Beers is signaling a more exclusive approach to the market. Following its March sight—where prices for 5-carat rough and above reportedly increased—the miner announced a reduction in its sightholder base. For the contract period beginning July 1, the list will shrink by 20–25 clients, ensuring that supply is concentrated among the most strategically aligned partners.

In the retail sector, Signet Jewelers closed its fiscal year with a strong performance, reporting $6.81 billion in sales (a 1.6% year-on-year increase). This financial health is paired with a strategic rebranding: the integration of the James Allen platform into Blue Nile. This move signals a renewed commitment to the natural diamond sector, positioning Blue Nile as a premier destination for consumers seeking authentic, timeless luxury.

While the reduction of US tariffs on Indian goods to 10% provides some relief, the industry remains vigilant. As we move further into 2026, the focus for global players will undoubtedly remain on securing high-quality rough and catering to the unwavering demand for the market’s most significant, large-scale stones.