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2026 THE ROAD AHEAD  Trust, Transparency, Technology, Transition (to organized retail)

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As the Indian jewellery industry approaches 2026, the sentiment among industry leaders is overwhelmingly positive. Despite anticipated fluctuations in metal prices and global economic uncertainties, the sector is poised for robust growth. The market is witnessing a decisive paradigm shift characterized by a transition from unorganized to organized retail, a surge in demand for lightweight and lower-karat jewellery, and the integration of advanced technology, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), into retail operations.

Rajesh Mehta

The financial outlook for the sector remains bullish. Rajesh Mehta, Chairman & Joint MD of Khazanchi Jewellers Ltd, highlights the immense scale of the market, noting, “Indian Gems & Jewellery industry is of Rs.7.31 lakh crores in the year 2025 and has potential to grow to Rs.11 lakh crores by 2030.”Mehta further predicts that gold and silver prices are expected to increase by 20–25% in 2026, driven by central bank investments and shifting consumer sentiments. He describes the cultural significance of the metal, stating, “Gold has always played a role of a third child, making life easy for families who hold gold, which acts as a strong hedge against inflation.”

Echoing this bullish sentiment, Paras Rajesh Rokde, Director of Rokde Jewellers Limited, notes that “Gold is likely to stay bullish—leading to firm prices with sharp festive-season spikes.” He adds that silver will play a “crucial supporting role” driven by affordability and industrial usage.

Product Trends: The Rise of Lightweight and Lower-Karat Jewellery A consistent theme across all leadership forecasts is the consumer shift toward “accessible luxury”—jewellery that is lightweight, design-led, and suitable for everyday wear.

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Ramesh Kalyanaraman, ED-Candere by Kalyan Jewellers, Looking ahead to 2026, we believe the next phase will be defined by conscious consumption. Customers are increasingly evaluating brands on transparency, sustainability and values—whether through interest in lab-grown diamonds or demand for complete hallmarking clarity. Candere’s strategy is therefore centred on building a future-ready retail ecosystem that blends heritage credibility with modern design, technology and trust-remaining deeply aligned with the aspirations of today’s indian consumer.

Indian jewellery buying is shifting from asset-led purchases to self-expression and self-reward, and this is directly shaping Candere’s retail strategy. Younger consumers are embracing every day, self-led purchases, fuelling demand for lightweight jewellery. With high gold prices, design-led, versatile pieces are gaining preference, alongside growing expectations around transparency, personalisation and conscious consumption.

 Saumen Bhaumik, MD of CaratLane, observes that “Indian consumers have shown adaptability—choosing lighter, design-forward pieces,” and predicts a wider adoption of lower-karat gold and diamond-studded silver designs. Daily Wearability: John Alukkas, MD of Jos Alukkas, points out that the shift to 18kt and 14kt “naturally allows for lighter constructions without compromising on design or durability,” aligning with the growing demand for stylish jewellery that can be worn comfortably every day.

As metal prices soar, the industry is moving toward 18kt, 14kt, and even 9kt gold. Rajesh Mehta notes that demand for “minimal jewellery in lower carat (18ct, 14ct & 9ct) will increase.”

Rahul Desai, MD & CEO of IIG, reinforces this, predicting a “decisive shift toward lighter, smarter, and more accessible luxury, driven by the rise of 9K jewellery.”

Pankaj Jagawat,MD-Utssav CZ Gold Jowels Ltd, The Indian jewelry industry is poised for consistent growth in 2026, pushed by rising customer self-assurance, deeper virtual adoption, and the accelerating shift closer to prepared retail. This momentum is further supported through developing domestic intake, growing urbanization, and solid export activity.

While high gold charges, regulatory changes, and financial uncertainty may also create intermittent pressures, gold and silver prices are expected to stay company with periodic volatility, encouraging customers to prioritise light-weight, layout-led and hallmarked merchandise.

Consumer Behavior: Trust, Transparency, and Organized Retail: The market is rapidly formalizing, with consumers prioritizing trust and experience over mere volume.

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This sentiment is shared by Paras Rajesh Rokde, who predicts that in 2026, consumers will “give priority to certified purity, transparent pricing, and reliable buyback policies,” with significant growth expected in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.

Furthermore, John Alukkas highlights that buyers are exploring diverse materials, noting that his brand is “expanding focus on natural diamonds, precious stones, and high-demand lightweight jewellery” to cater to customers who prioritize value and originality.

The AI Era 2026 is projected to be a landmark year for the integration of technology in retail. Saumen Bhaumik envisions an industry with a “greater emphasis on trust, transparency, and technology-led experiences.”Taking this forecast further, Rahul Desai asserts that “AI will move from theory to practice.” He believes that 2026 will mark the true beginning of AI-enabled retail, stating: “Every retailer, small or large, will integrate at least one intelligent system, no matter how small.”

Call for for customised and ethically sourced jewelry will continue to bolster, mainly among more youthful consumers.

As the Indian jewellery industry hurdles toward 2026, it stands at the cusp of a transformative AI era, where trust, transparency, and technology-led experiences redefine consumer engagement. Organized retail gains momentum as buyers favor authenticity and immersive interactions over sheer volume, formalizing a market ripe for innovation.

source :JBExclusive

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JB Insights

India Raises Gold, Silver Import Duty To 15% To Curb Soaring Precious Metal Import Bills and Conserve Forex

Higher Duties Could Increase Prices, Impact Exports, and Create Liquidity Pressure For MSME Manufacturers Due To Rising Working Capital Requirements

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The Finance Ministry on Wednesday raised effective import duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15% — comprising 10% basic customs duty and 5% agriculture infrastructure and development cess (AIDC) — effective 13 May 2026. The move aims to curb soaring precious metal import bills and conserve foreign exchange reserves as the West Asia crisis intensifies pressure on India’s trade balance.

Markets reacted swiftly. Titan fell as much as 1.5% on the day, extending a prior two-session decline of over 10%, while Kalyan Jewellers dropped as much as 5.9%. Gold and silver ETFs rallied sharply on expectations of higher domestic bullion prices. WGC data implies the 9-percentage-point hike could suppress annual consumer demand by roughly 57 tonnes — based on an estimate of 6.4 tonnes of demand suppression per 1% duty rise.

Industry Voices

“Higher duties could revive gold smuggling, which had eased substantially after the 2024 duty reduction. Every 1% rise in import duty reduces consumer demand by approximately 6.4 tonnes — implying the hike could suppress demand by ~57 tonnes annually.”

Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions | National President, IBJA Bullions | Chairman, JITO

“Higher duties could increase prices, impact exports, and create liquidity pressure for MSME manufacturers due to rising working capital requirements. We urge continued dialogue for balanced solutions that support both economic goals and export growth.”

Kirit Bhansali Chairman, GJEPC

“The increase in customs duty is a temporary and calibrated measure in the present economic scenario. The trade should remain calm and confident — India’s jewellery sector has always demonstrated resilience and adaptability during challenging times.”

Kirit bhansali

Rajesh Rokde Chairman, GJC

“It is important for the trade fraternity to avoid panic and continue business with confidence and responsibility. GJC fully supports the nation’s larger economic priorities and remains committed to constructive engagement with policymakers.”

Avinash Gupta Vice Chairman, GJC

“Due to the simultaneous occurrence of two events—the sudden 9% hike in import duty and statements made by PM Modi—both the jewelry industry and customers find themselves in a state of confusion. This is significantly impacting jewellers, artisans, and large factories alike.

My suggestion to everyone is to remain patient and avoid panicking. Everyone should avoid protests, shop closures, or any form of aggression. Once the government’s complete process is revealed, we can then consider all options through dialogue and discussion.”

Anurag Rastogi, North India Head – IBJA

“Business is already at nearly 50% of normal levels, and the duty increase will reduce consumption volumes further. Promoting lower caratage jewellery — 9ct, 14ct, 18ct — could make products more affordable and reduce gold usage. As an industry, we must stand with the government during this period.”

K. Srinivasan, CMD, Emerald Group

“An increase in import duty on gold typically has a direct impact on retail prices, influencing short-term consumer sentiment — especially for price-sensitive buyers. In the immediate phase, some customers may postpone discretionary purchases or wait for price stability. It can lead to a 10–15% volume decline to help control gold inflows into the country.

However, gold buying in India is deeply linked to weddings, festivals, and long-term wealth preservation, so demand is usually resilient over time.”

Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO, Senco Gold and Diamonds

“Changes in import duties on gold and silver are part of an evolving policy landscape, and the industry has consistently adapted with resilience and stability. We respect the government’s decision and recognize the broader economic considerations behind such measures.

Over the years, gold import duty has moved from 15% to 6% and now back to 15%. However, gold prices have never been driven by changes in duty alone. Global trends, rupee depreciation, and consumer demand remain key factors, while recent revisions reflect an already elevated domestic gold price environment.”

Chetan Thadeshwar, CMD – Shringar House Of Mangalsutra Ltd

“At SwarnShilp, we believe any duty increase is a reminder for the industry to become faster, more efficient, and more design-driven. Our focus remains on strong inventory planning, lightweight innovation, and timely delivery to support our customers despite market volatility.”

Khushboo Ranawat, Director – SwarnShilp Chains & Jewellers Pvt Ltd

Industry Proposals

Lower caratage push
Promote 9K, 14K & 18K jewellery to cut gold consumption and keep prices within reach

Revamp GMS
Overhaul the Gold Monetization Scheme through jeweller networks to mobilize idle household gold

Old Gold Exchange
Scale consumer recycling programmes to reduce dependency on fresh bullion imports

Risks to watch out for

Dubai/CEPA arbitrage — GTRI warns that the India–UAE CEPA could make UAE-routed imports cheaper, partially neutralizing the duty’s intent

Smuggling revival — duty spikes above 10% have historically correlated with the resurgence of grey-market gold flows into India

Export competitiveness — higher landed costs raise working capital requirements for MSME exporters and could weigh on jewellery export volumes

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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