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Trump tariffs and its impact on bullion industry

As of March 25, 2025, the United States, under President Donald Trump, has implemented various tariffs on multiple countries, leading to reciprocal measures from affected nations. Below is a summary of these actions

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U.S. Enacted Tariffs:

  • Steel and Aluminum Products: A 25% tariff was announced on February 10, 2025, and became effective on March 12, 2025.
  • Canadian Goods: A 25% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, and took effect on March 4, 2025. However, on March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were delayed until April 2. Additionally, the tariff on potash was reduced to 10%.
  • Canadian Oil and Gas: A 10% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, with implementation delayed until April 2.
  • Chinese Goods: An initial 10% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, effective February 4, 2025. This rate increased to 20% on March 4,2025.
  • Mexican Goods: A 25% tax was announced on February 1, 2025, and took effect on March 4, 2025. Tariffs on USMCA-compliant items were pushed back to April 2.

Proposed U.S. Tariffs:

  • Reciprocal Tariffs: Announced on February 13, 2025, with implementation expected to begin on April 2.
  • European Union Goods: On February 2, 2025, President Trump stated that taxes on European Union goods will be implemented pretty soon
  • On March 13, he threatened a 200 percent levy on EU alcohol.
  • Digital Service Taxes (DSTs): On February 21, 2025, President Trump directed the U.S. Trade Representative to initiate a Section 302 investigation into DSTs, particularly targeting France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK.
  • Copper Imports: On February 25, 2025, the Commerce Secretary was directed to initiate a Section 232 investigation into copper imports.
  • Timber and Lumber Imports: On March 1, 2025, the Commerce Secretary was directed to initiate a Section 232 investigation into timber and lumber imports.

Foreign Retaliatory Measures:

  • Canada: Implemented a 25% tariff on certain U.S. goods effective March 4, 2025. On March 13, 2025, Canada expanded tariffs to include 25% on steel products, aluminium products, and miscellaneous goods.
  • China: Imposed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on oil and agricultural machinery, effective February 4, 2025. On March 10, 2025, China expanded tariffs to 10-15% on U.S. meat and agricultural products, suspended U.S. lumber imports, and revoked soybean import licenses for three U.S. firms.
  • European Union: Announced planned tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods, delayed from April 1, and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products, expected to take effect in mid-April.

Impact of US Tariffs on Bullion Industry

These measures have escalated global trade tensions, leading to increased economic uncertainty and potential impacts on the bullion Industry. TheTrump administration tariffs have significantly impacted the global bullion industry, particularly in terms of supply chains, pricing, and investor sentiment. Here are some key effects:

  • Increased Gold and Silver Import Costs – If Trump imposes tariffs on gold imports, especially from the UK (via Bank of England reserves),
  • premiums in India and other markets may rise due to supply disruptions. Any tariffs on silver imports could push up costs for industrial users
  • and jewellery manufacturers.
  • Market Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand – Trade war fears and economic uncertainty have historically driven safe-haven demand for gold.
  • Investors have increased their bullion holdings as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks.
  • Impact on Refining and Trade – Tariffs on dore imports could make refining costlier in major processing hubs like India and Switzerland. If China imposes retaliatory tariffs, it could disrupt gold flow and shift refining operations elsewhere.
  • Effect on Bullion Prices and Premiums – Tariffs have distorted pricing, leading to higher premiums in key consuming markets like India and China. Increased import costs have widened the gap between domestic and international gold prices.
  • Influence on Central Bank Gold Reserves – If tariffs impact gold trade routes, central banks might adjust their reserve strategies, possibly leading to increased domestic purchases.
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International News

Gold continues upward march;Bank of America forecasts  $5,000/oz for 2026

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Gold prices in India saw a modest rise on Wednesday today Oct 15, mirroring an uptick in international markets as renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of further US interest rate cuts bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.24k gold traded at Rs.1,28,360/10gm after gaining ₹10 in early trade, while silver prices increased by Rs.100 to Rs.1,89,100 per kilogram.

Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025.  Investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid trade tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations. U.S. December gold futures jumped 57% year-to-date.  Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, warning of possible near-term corrections.

Gold prices soared to an unprecedented $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the yellow metal. The rally comes as investors worldwide seek safety in hard assets amid a turbulent global economic backdrop marked by escalating trade tensions, slowing growth, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The sharp surge in bullion prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive monetary easing. As inflation pressures remain sticky and central banks pivot toward dovish policies, gold has reasserted its role as a hedge against both currency debasement and market volatility.

In futures trading, U.S. December gold contracts have skyrocketed nearly 57% so far this year, underscoring the strength of investor demand across both institutional and retail segments. Analysts note that central bank buying—particularly from emerging markets—has added further momentum to the rally, with several countries diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar.

Reflecting this bullish sentiment, Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing continued monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank accumulation. However, the bank also cautioned that short-term corrections are likely, given the rapid pace of the recent run-up and potential bouts of profit-taking.

Overall, gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, as investors navigate a world increasingly defined by economic fragmentation, shifting interest rate cycles, and persistent geopolitical risks.

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