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Precious metals subdued on strong US Jobs data AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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  • A better-than-expected U.S. jobs data has strengthened predictions that the Federal Reserve would not lower interest rates at its December meeting, which has caused precious metals to trade mutedly.
  • The highly anticipated U.S. Labour Department report, which was postponed due to the federal government shutdown, revealed that nonfarm payrolls climbed by 119,000 in September—more than twice the projected gain of 50,000.
  • The Fed lowered interest rates despite members’ warnings that doing so could jeopardise persistent inflation and erode public confidence in the US central bank, according to minutes from the Fed’s October meeting that were made public on Wednesday.
  • The Cleveland Beth Hammack, the president of the Federal Reserve, cautioned on Thursday that further rate cuts at this time pose a number of economic dangers. There is a chance that asset prices will drop excessively, according to Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Technical Triggers 

  • Gold has been trading in the range of $4000 (~Rs 121,000) and $4150 (~Rs 125,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
  • Silver has been trading in the range of $49 (~Rs 150,000) to $53 (~Rs 160,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4000/oz$4150/oz
Indian Gold₹121,000/10 gm₹125,000/10 gm
International Silver$49/oz$53/oz
Indian Silver₹150,000/kg₹160,000/kg

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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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