International News
Precious metals fall on reduced rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Gold and silver experience steep selloffs, as investors wait for hints on the Federal Reserve’s policy course from a succession of US economic data releases this week, marking the fourth straight session of losses amid waning hopes for a US interest rate cut.
- A rate cut in December has become less likely due to the absence of US data over the last six weeks and hawkish comments made by a number of Fed officials.
- Thursday’s September Nonfarm payroll data will be eagerly watched by traders for clues about the state of the US economy, and the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday to offer more rate direction. The market’s implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped from nearly 60% earlier this month to 43% now.
- However, structural tailwinds such as geopolitical unpredictability, worries about the sustainability of US debt, de-dollarisation trends, and central bank purchases are anticipated to sustain investment demand for gold and silver throughout the medium and long term.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has broken an important support of $4050; the next target support is $3950 (~Rs 120,000).
- Silver has broken the important support of $50, the next target support level is around $48.5(~Rs 150,000) and $47(~Rs 145,000).
Support and Resistance
| Category | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3950/oz | $4050/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹120,000/10gm | ₹122,000/10gm |
| International Silver | $52/oz | $50.5/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹150,000/kg | ₹153,500/kg |
International News
Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector
Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments
Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.
We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:
- Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
- Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
- Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
- Energy Sector Headwinds
Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:
- Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.
Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation
The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.
- US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
- Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.
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