Following a landmark US Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026, which invalidated President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the trade landscape has shifted into a volatile transition period. In response, the US administration has invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implementing a temporary 15% global import surcharge.

Indian exporters in various sectors including GJ are currently racing to maximize shipments within a 150-day window to capitalize on the relative certainty of the current 15% rate before potential further escalations under Section 301. The “150-day window” (ending roughly in July 2026) has become a critical marathon for Indian logistics. While the Supreme Court ruling offered a brief moment of relief by striking down 50% “penalty” duties, the immediate reimposition of a 15% surcharge keeps the “landed cost” of Indian goods high.

Gems and Jewellery sector impact

• Current Status: The sector is reeling from a 60% year-on-year decline in cut and polished diamond exports (falling from $3.64 billion to $1.45 billion in the April–December 2025 period).
• Exporter Action: The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) successfully requested Mumbai Customs to remain open over the weekend to facilitate immediate dispatches.
• Trade Deal Outlook: Under a recently announced interim framework, India expects zero-duty access for diamonds and a reduction in jewellery tariffs to 18% (down from 25%). Exporters are rushing to ship goods before these negotiated terms are potentially complicated by the new Section 122 surcharge.

Technical Regulatory Framework

The shift in US policy utilizes two distinct legal “hammers”:

Strategic Outlook

The “150-day window” (ending roughly in July 2026) has become a critical marathon for Indian logistics. While the Supreme Court ruling offered a brief moment of relief by striking down 50% “penalty” duties, the immediate reimposition of a 15% surcharge keeps the “landed cost” of Indian goods high.

Note: Exporters are urged to maintain close coordination with the Union Commerce Ministry, as the operationalization of the India-US Interim Trade Pact (expected in April 2026) may offer a “carve-out” or preferential rate that bypasses the global 15% surcharge.