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FED turns dovish, projecting only one rate cut in 2026 AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Despite the Federal Reserve’s dovish estimate for interest rates in 2026, gold and silver prices are trading strongly due to safe haven demand amid geopolitical instability.
  • The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as predicted, with a 9-3 split vote. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is “well positioned to wait and see” how the economy unfolds, having eased policy by 75 basis points this year.
  • The Summary of Economic Projections displayed a “dot-plot” in which most members said that the fed funds rate for the next year would be approximately 3.4%, meaning that policymakers may slash 25 basis points in 2026. Beyond 2028, Fed policymakers expect neutral rates to be about 3%.
  • Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties contributed to the metal’s safe-haven appeal, notably the US interception of a sanctioned ship near Venezuela and persistent uncertainty regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace process.

Technical Triggers        

  • If gold sustains below $4200 (~Rs 129,000), we are likely to see more sell off upto $4100(~Rs 124,500).
  • One could sell Silver below $62 (~Rs 192,000) for the target of $60.50 (~Rs 188,000).

Support and Resistance

CategorySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4200/oz$4300/oz
Indian Gold₹129,000 / 10 gm₹131,400 / 10 gm
International Silver$60.5/oz$63.25/oz
Indian Silver₹187,000 / kg₹193,500 / kg
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International News

MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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