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FED turns dovish, projecting only one rate cut in 2026 AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Despite the Federal Reserve’s dovish estimate for interest rates in 2026, gold and silver prices are trading strongly due to safe haven demand amid geopolitical instability.
  • The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as predicted, with a 9-3 split vote. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is “well positioned to wait and see” how the economy unfolds, having eased policy by 75 basis points this year.
  • The Summary of Economic Projections displayed a “dot-plot” in which most members said that the fed funds rate for the next year would be approximately 3.4%, meaning that policymakers may slash 25 basis points in 2026. Beyond 2028, Fed policymakers expect neutral rates to be about 3%.
  • Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties contributed to the metal’s safe-haven appeal, notably the US interception of a sanctioned ship near Venezuela and persistent uncertainty regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace process.

Technical Triggers        

  • If gold sustains below $4200 (~Rs 129,000), we are likely to see more sell off upto $4100(~Rs 124,500).
  • One could sell Silver below $62 (~Rs 192,000) for the target of $60.50 (~Rs 188,000).

Support and Resistance

CategorySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4200/oz$4300/oz
Indian Gold₹129,000 / 10 gm₹131,400 / 10 gm
International Silver$60.5/oz$63.25/oz
Indian Silver₹187,000 / kg₹193,500 / kg
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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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