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Despite business closures, jewellery industry shows signs of steadying; JBT
Hundreds more US jewelry businesses ceased trading in Q3, according to the latest update from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT), which provides commercial credit information.
The rate of decline remains steady, with the total number of registered retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers down by 3.1 per cent, as it was in Q2, and largely in line with recent quarters.
Ongoing uncertainty around major trade relationships and supply chain risks continued to impact business sentiment. Still, there were signs of measured progress for the jewelry industry.
In the three months to 30 September the number of jewelry businesses fell by 706 to a total of 22,858. That takes account of new businesses as well as ceased operations.
There were 89 new listings during Q3 2025, compared to 112 in Q3 2024, a drop of a fifth. But there were also 100 closures, down a quarter on 136 in Q3 2024.
Overall there were 93 fewer manufacturers, a reduction of 4.2 per cent to 2,096; 96 fewer wholesalers, a reduction of 2.9 per cent to 3,234; and 517 fewer retailers, a reduction of 3.0 per cent to 16,822, according to JBT’s Vital Statistics and Trend Data, published on 4 December.
Although this year may have seen concerning shifts at times economically, the jewelry industry shows signs of steadying according to JBT.
A staggering 14% rally in January took gold above the US$5,000 mark, cementing the 5k number as a headline to match the first recorded annual 5,000 tonnes of total demand. The month closed at US$4,982/oz and scored 12 all-time highs. But it was not without drama with large intraday swings on the last two days of the month.
Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) showed an unusually large contribution from implied volatility (c.50% of January’s return), reflecting substantial option market activity. This variable currently sits in risk & uncertainty, although is likely more reflective here of momentum.Â
Global gold ETF flows provided plenty of support adding 120t in January to take holdings to a new record, valued at US$669bn. The flows were dominated by Asia (62t) and North America (43t) while Europe saw more modest inflows
Key Price Figures (January 2026)
The month was characterized by relentless momentum, scoring 12 all-time highs before ending with significant intraday volatility.
| Metric | Value (USD) | Peak Date |
| January Closing Price | US$4,982/oz | Jan 30, 2026 |
| All-Time Record High | US$5,307/oz | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Monthly Return | +14.1% | — |
Performance in Other Major Currencies (Jan Return):
- INR: +23.9% (Record high: ₹176,306/10g)
- RMB: +19.2% (Record high: ¥1,248/g)
- EUR: +13.0% (Record high: €4,444/oz)
Major Market Drivers
- Momentum & Options (GRAM Model): Approximately 50% of January’s return was attributed to implied volatility and massive options market activity rather than pure macro fundamentals.
- ETF Inflows: Global gold ETFs added 120 tonnes (valued at US$669bn), the strongest month on record.
- Asia: 62t (led by China)
- North America: 43t
- Europe: 13t
- The “Warsh Effect”: Late-month drama was fueled by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Markets perceive him as a “hawk” favoring a smaller Fed balance sheet, which triggered a sharp intraday correction from the $5,300 peaks.
Macro Outlook: The Inflation Resurgence
While geopolitics dominated January, the narrative is shifting toward resurgent US inflation risks for the remainder of 2026. Key triggers include:
- Tariff Pass-through: Lagged effects of trade policies hitting consumers.
- Fiscal Stimulus: Prospective $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks and ACA subsidies ahead of the US mid-term elections.
- Tight Labor: A falling breakeven employment rate and rising household inflation expectations.
Investment Implications
- Stock-Bond Correlation: Inflationary shocks are making stocks and bonds move in the same direction, reducing the efficacy of traditional 60/40 portfolios.
- Gold’s Role: Gold is increasingly viewed as a left-tail hedge and a “hard money” alternative as sovereign debt levels (reaching 30% of the $340T global sector debt) raise debasement fears.
The gold market is likely to “pause” after the January surge, but the combination of fiscal expansion and Fed leadership uncertainty suggests investment demand will remain a structural feature of 2026.
source :WGC
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