Russian diamond giant Alrosa is detecting the first glimmers of a turnaround in both rough and polished diamond markets after several tough years, driven by growing scarcity as global production heads toward its lowest level in two decades.⁠

The miner reported that prices for its rough diamonds have climbed 6% to 9% since the start of 2026, with the most pronounced gains in the high-value 2- to 10-carat segment. That category accounts for about 80% of Alrosa’s production by value. Prices in these sizes rose across all three of the company’s trading sessions this year, with modest improvement in January followed by stronger advances in February and March. Overall, Alrosa lifted selling prices to varying degrees on nearly half of its regular assortment in the first quarter.⁠

Alrosa forecasts that worldwide diamond output will drop below 100 million carats in 2026—the lowest in 20 years—with risks of even steeper declines as older deposits are exhausted and unprofitable mines are idled.

The company itself has already suspended operations at several smaller sites, including alluvial projects in the Anabar River Valley and the Verkhne Munskoye deposit’s Zapolyarny and Magnitny open pits. Rio Tinto’s Diavik mine in Canada, a long-time supplier of high-quality stones, reached the end of its commercial production this week after more than 23 years and over 150 million carats extracted. Other Canadian deposits are also slated for permanent closure this year.⁠

The tightening supply comes as major producers, including Alrosa, have deliberately curtailed output in recent years to help balance inventories. Alrosa itself plans to mine 25–26 million carats in 2026, down from higher levels, while continuing to sell into key markets such as India and China despite Western sanctions.