Diamond prices declined in June as sales dropped and inventories grew. Indian manufacturers reduced production, but sales fell at a sharper rate due to weak demand. This led to an oversupply and pressure to sell.
Synthetics continued to take market share from natural diamonds and will likely do so throughout 2024. Chinese diamond demand remains very weak as consumers turn to gold jewelry as a store of value. US retail sales were mixed in June. Indian jewelry demand, while healthy, saw a seasonal lull.
The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1-carat goods — reflecting round, D to H, IF to VS2 diamonds — fell 3.6% in June. This was a slightly gentler decline than in May. However, the drop in the 0.30-carat RAPI accelerated to 6% in June. The index for 0.50-carat diamonds fell 4.8%, and prices of 3-carat stones went down 2%. Prices for round, 1-carat, D to H, SI diamonds slid 0.5%.The secondary rough market was quiet due to sluggish polished demand. De Beers’ 2024 rough sales through June fell 20% year on year to $1.95 billion. Some sightholders refused boxes that would result in losses. Rapaport expects De Beers’ revenue to continue to decline in 2024 due to competition from synthetics.
Rapaport believes synthetics will dominate the US bridal segment in 2024, accounting for over 50% of engagement-ring purchases. However, the synthetic bridal market will collapse in 2025 as their very low prices will make them unsuitable for engagement rings. Natural diamond demand will come back strong as consumers return to traditional engagement rings whose value is appropriate for the gift of marital commitment.
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